Snow And Icy Mix Looking More Likely Monday Morning

Saturday Evening Dec 14 2019

If you are going to a holiday party this evening like me, the next weather event is likely to be a topic of conversation. So, I wanted to share my thoughts with you because there is a lot of support for first flakes arrive before sunrise, and a wintry mix that could impact some (not all) area schools. Also, it’s always safe to talk about the weather if politics come up, or someone for some unknown reason does not like the Ravens.

Headline Notes

• This earlier arrival time is what I’ve been saying for months and with this event. When it first showed up, it looked like an afternoon or evening event, but I was cautious of it doing this. The models are proving their slow error, and  playing catching up. By tomorrow we should have a good handle on when this will begin across the region.
• The Chesapeake Bay water temp is still in the mid 40s. This is warmer than this time last year and will play a role in limiting impact along and east of I-95 and I-97.
• Schools could be impacted due to timing and colder air farther west and north.  In Maryland some counties might make a decision based on weather that could be slick while it is wet where you are.
• How much snow? At this point it looks like a coating to 2 inches, but the icing could be a lingering issue.
• If there is icing during the morning, this often holds longer than model show.

In this post I will show the onset from three models and the simulation timeline from the European ECWMF Model.  But first, how cold will  we get after a dry Sunday?

Monday Morning Sunrise Temperature Forecast

The freezing line will be just west of Washington and Baltimore.

First Flakes Before Sunrise?

The Canadian and GFS Models both show the leading edge of snow entering our region at 4 AM.  The Canadian is the slowest of the package suite.

We often get virga on the leading edge. This means snow on radar but it dries up (sublimates) before reaction the ground. So we can still add a buffer and get snow falling in these areas by sunrise.

European ECMWF Model

Simulation —> slider

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