Saturday Evening Dec 14 2019

If you are going to a holiday party this evening like me, the next weather event is likely to be a topic of conversation. So, I wanted to share my thoughts with you because there is a lot of support for first flakes arrive before sunrise, and a wintry mix that could impact some (not all) area schools. Also, it’s always safe to talk about the weather if politics come up, or someone for some unknown reason does not like the Ravens.

Headline Notes

  • This earlier arrival time is what I’ve been saying for months and with this event. When it first showed up, it looked like an afternoon or evening event, but I was cautious of it doing this. The models are proving their slow error, and  playing catching up. By tomorrow we should have a good handle on when this will begin across the region.
  • The Chesapeake Bay water temp is still in the mid 40s. This is warmer than this time last year and will play a role in limiting impact along and east of I-95 and I-97.
  • Schools could be impacted due to timing and colder air farther west and north.  In Maryland some counties might make a decision based on weather that could be slick while it is wet where you are.
  • How much snow? At this point it looks like a coating to 2 inches, but the icing could be a lingering issue.
  • If there is icing during the morning, this often holds longer than model show.

In this post I will show the onset from three models and the simulation timeline from the European ECWMF Model.  But first, how cold will  we get after a dry Sunday?

Monday Morning Sunrise Temperature Forecast

The freezing line will be just west of Washington and Baltimore.


First Flakes Before Sunrise?

The Canadian and GFS Models both show the leading edge of snow entering our region at 4 AM.  The Canadian is the slowest of the package suite.

We often get virga on the leading edge. This means snow on radar but it dries up (sublimates) before reaction the ground. So we can still add a buffer and get snow falling in these areas by sunrise.




European ECMWF Model

Simulation —> slider

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I will have more updates on Sunday, and will include any needed onset time and total maps.

Please share your thoughts, best weather pics/video, or just keep in touch via social media


Easy Gift Idea: SNOWSTIX
Order today and they will ship next week


  • Thanks to Shannon (weather wife) for hand picking items ‘she’ wants to wear
  • The Yoga Pants have side leg pocket for your phone
  • The Hoodie is extra soft and has the important ‘thumb holes’

FITF Store: Weather Wife




Winter Outlook Series:

My Call For Snowfall Winter 2019-2020





Snowy Winters Following A Hot and Dry September


NOAA Winter Outlook Leaves Room For More Snow With Mild ‘Seasonal Average’ Temperatures

Other  Links:

See the maps for when we normally expect the first frost in this link.

Baltimore Weather At BWI May Not Be As Hot As Reported

Construction at the airport close to the weather station may be added artificial heat. Click here or the image for the details.



Was Your County Not Included?

Click this map for more on the regional forecast zones


Maryland Trek Cycle Jerseys From Hill Killer

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Thank you to our Title Sponsor for Maryland Trek 6

Shining on with Smyth and their contribution, our team has raised over $95,000 for Just In Power Kids to provide free programs for kids in and post cancer treatment.

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