Saturday December 7 2019

This morning temperatures were very cold, but we are turning the corner this weekend. The weather will be quiet and afternoon temperatures will get back to the seasonal 40s both afternoons. It’s Monday through Wednesday when a strong storm will bring big changes. Also check out the new Weather Wife FITF collection below 🙂

 

So let’s cut to the chase! There will be a strong storm arriving on Monday with heavy rain and warming us to the 60s. Rain totals will be in the 1 to 2 inch (plus) range across the area.

Often in December when we warm up that much, the bottom falls out following the storm. This will happen on Wednesday and the rain may end with some snow. I was hesitant to jump on the models, but feel I have a better handle to explain what this really will mean.  The outlook is posted below, but know that the Bay water is still warmer than ‘normal’ and needs to chill before much of central Maryland can get in on any wintry action. Also, the longer range does bring colder air through Christmas.

Saturday Morning Surface Weather

 

Saturday December 7, 2019 in Baltimore

Average High:  48ºF

Record High: 77ºF in 1998

Average  Low: 30ºF

Record Low:  6ºF in 2002

Sunrise: 7:12 AM

Sunset 4:43 PM  

*Daylight = 0:56 shorter than yesterday 

*Bay Water Temperature = 45ºF at Thomas Pt. Light House (last year was 42ºF)

 

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Jumping Ahead to Monday’s Storm

We will be on the warm side of this event, which means rain. It will spread in Monday and last into Tuesday when we could reach the 60s.  Then the back edge of the storm will have the colder air catch up and change the last few hours to snow. This is the Canadian GEM Model… That may not show the rain as well, but does highlight and maybe exaggerate the snow on the back edge a little.  I’ll explain below….

 

Closer Look At The Storm

The European Model does show the most likely set up: Cold air will catch up and change the rain to snow Wednesday morning. But I’ve highlighted the 540 DM Thickness (between 100mb and 500mb). This is basically an analysis of where the atmosphere will support pure snow and the freezing line for stickage.  As we can see, the snow jumps ahead or east of that line. So we could get snow that melts on the ground for many.

This is where any model showing snowfall will not be accurate blending in the waste of melted flakes.  But, we could see snow Wednesday morning.

—> slider

 

Rain Potential

The European Model projection for rain totals are in the 1 to 2 (plus) inch range

 

Jet Stream

Here is where the arctic air will be and track.  Notice the dip deep in the the south central US. but when it moves our way, it skips north.  We will get a taste for a few days, but not the core.

This is what the great Larry Cosgrove calls the Mother Load of cold air into the US. This is NOT the Polar Vortex, but will bring polar air well south.  We will warm ahead of it and only get a small taste swinging through Wednesday

 

Temperatures Wednesday Morning

Notice the actual readings expected to be well below Zero!  The wind chills will be colder.  But central Maryland will be on the edge of the freezing line at that time

 

 

Temperature Outlook

The jet stream will relax after this arctic push. We may need to watch for another storm to pass through with the warming at the end of next week. Then in the longer range bond this view, we should get into a colder pattern through Christmas. I have Faith in the Flakes! There will be a few chances over the next 3 weeks.