With the cold air settling in today and a clear sky tonight, temperatures will drop quickly. A Freeze Warning has been issued for much of the region, including around the Bay and Delmarva. There are a couple of things to consider with a warning like this, which I will point out below.

Freeze Warning

Most areas from Frederick County eastward to the Bay, Southern PA, Southern Maryland, and Delmarva are included. Ocean City and Assatague Island has a Frost Advisory. I believe more shoreline areas of the Bay should be included as temps will be marginal tomorrow morning.


When temperatures drop below 32ºF, water will freeze, which expands in the process. This is why it’s prudent to disconnect hoses to prevent them from bursting. In addition, tender potted plants should be brought inside. A tarp only helps with a frost, a freeze would be the end game.


How Cold Will It Be?

Here are two model forecasts for low temperatures Saturday morning. There is a slight difference, but most notable are the marginal conditions along the water and on DelMarva.

  • If you live along the water, the odds are slim for your area to drop below freezing. But farther inland, head the caution.
  • If your location drops into the 20s, you will be below freezing for a few hours and more likely to have a hard freeze ‘in the lines’.
  • Temps will thaw, but not warm much during the day. Mid 40s to near 50ºF expected in the afternoon.

WRF Model – The colder one


NAM 3 Km Model- Slightly warmer


Saturday Afternoon


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Also See:

NOAA Winter Outlook Leaves Room For More Snow With Mild ‘Seasonal Average’ Temperatures


Many areas inland from the cities should drop into the 30s by tomorrow morning. This could do it.

See the maps for when we normally expect the first frost in this link.


Snowy Winters Following A Hot and Dry September


Baltimore Weather At BWI May Not Be As Hot As Reported

Construction at the airport close to the weather station may be added artificial heat. Click here or the image for the details.



Other  Links:



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