Friday October 25 2019

Here we go again! As of 11 AM EDT, the winds were sustained at 35 mph and is expected to become a ‘post tropical’ Low with Gale Force winds by tonight. This means it is not a pure warm core system, but it will get named… Olga.

This will be filed under Atmosphere Memory as we have yet another quick forming tropical system in the Gulf of Mexico to be fed into another storm that will head our way over the weekend. We just did this last week with Nestor, that led to our soggy Sunday. While this will track into a different part of the Gulf coast and different storm track inland, we will still get the residual heavy rain on a Sunday.

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.6N 94.4W
ABOUT 320 MI...515 KM SSW OF LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


Tropical Depression 17 Satellite Loop
The convection (high clouds and storms) can easily be seen developing in red and darker colors. This is moving north and will make landfall tomorrow. So not much time to develop but it will bring a lot more moisture with it into the storm in Texas. 
Morning Surface Weather

Atmospheric Memory: 
While this is similar to what Nestor did along the coast last weekend, this track is farther inland. 
IF this was to be repeated in winter, it would
be a warmer rain event in the east. We need the Low on the coast for snow. 
Why I do see if the pattern of Gulf moisture feeding into southern track Lows that enhance development as they move east. This winter will have many. Some will be snow for us, but others with a track like this will be rain. Forecast TrackThe National Hurricane Center pulls this north and combining with the other storm, will track into the Great Lakes.  It's important to note that the rain will cover a 
lager area and we will get heavy rain well east of the Low track.



Forecast Animation
There has been some discrepancies between the European and GFS Models, but overall there has been agreement. Here is the GFS Model animation tracking the Low northward form the Gulf to the Great Lakes. But watch the rain enhance along the cold front that we will get on Sunday

Rainfall Forecasts
A widespread area over 0.50" to over 1" expected. Less rain will fall south and east of the cities.

GFS Model


European Model

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