Wednesday October 23 2019

It is rather ironic that we talk about a few days to dry out, but we have had more rain in the last week than the 2 months prior in our area. Some of the moisture has patchy thick fog this morning, but the sun will come out and warm us into the 60s this afternoon. Dry and mild weather will take us into the end of the week, then another rain event this weekend. We have a better handle on the timing now that I’ll show below.

Wednesday Morning Weather

Weather Headlines:

Some Morning Fog west and north
Afternoon: Sunny and mild into the 60s
Dry and mild through Friday
Rain returns late Saturday, then another soggy Sunday.

Local Weather Stats:

Wednesday October 23, 2019 in Baltimore

Average High: 65ºF

Record High: 91ºF in 1947

Average Low: 43ºF

Record Low: 28ºF in 1997

Sunrise: 7:24 AM

Sunset 6:16 PM

*Daylight = 2:24 shorter than yesterday

*Bay Water Temperature = 63ºF at Thomas Pt. Light House

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Temperatures

Highs Today

Lows Tomorrow Morning

Highs Tomorrow Afternoon

Weekend Rain

The biggest question I have had over this week has been about the forecast for the weekend. Depending on your other sources you either saw rain for Saturday or Sunday. I want to show you why and compare the models below.

My take:

Rain Saturday Evening Into Sunday

The GFS Model had the rain arrive Saturday, then departing Sunday afternoon. This model has been shifting the arrival time later.

This model run has shifted that time until later Saturday afternoon. But this may be a little too fast

The European ECMWF Model had the rain on Sunday. But as I noted with the past few systems, the trend has shown systems arriving earlier. This model has sped up the arrival until Saturday evening. I think that is the better call for now. Most outdoor plans before sunset should be OK. If this speeds up more, it might bring showers but most of the daylight hours should be dry.

Radar Simulation —> slider

[metaslider id=80723]

Rainfall Potential

This should bring between 1/2″ and 1″ of rain to most of our area.

Temperature Outlook

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Also See:

NOAA Winter Outlook Leaves Room For More Snow With Mild ‘Seasonal Average’ Temperatures

Moderate Drought For Half of Maryland and Virginia: Drought Monitor

Many areas inland from the cities should drop into the 30s by tomorrow morning. This could do it. See the look at when we normally expect the first frost in this link.