Saturday October 19 2019

This morning brought some frost to parts of our region and tomorrow morning should bring rain for most of us. Tropical Storm Nestor formed in the Gulf of Mexico yesterday and is quickly moving onshore in the Florida Panhandle. Winds are 50 mph, but it is not well organize, as all of the action has been to the east of the Low, but strong enough to produce damaging tornados in Tampa overnight.

I have three different computer models to compare below. Often as we enter a new season, there are new pattern challenges in forecasting. Spotting them now may help with the important winter storms in a few months, and I want to share what I see with you.

Rain will develop during Sunday morning, and the heaviest is expected in southern Maryland. But there is a big split in how much impact will be felt in northern Maryland and southern PA. The difference shown is under 0.25″ to over 2″ and can really change how the day plays out there.

Tropical Storm Nestor Track

The official National Hurricane Center stats and track are below. This is holding with what I showed yesterday, but the big question is how far north the rain will spread. See more below

Tropical Storm Nestor Satellite Loop

SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.5N 86.8W
ABOUT 80 MI...125 KM WSW OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA
ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM W OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES

This storm will be downgraded to a post tropical cyclone later today after landfall.

Sunday Rain Forecast

The ECWMF Model is the most reliable and has been consistent with the track of the rain Sunday. This shows a sharp cutoff of the rain north and west of Baltimore. However, the NAM 3 Km is a high resolution model generated more frequently, and shows heavier rain pushing on the north side of our area. This model has a history of overdoing some events, but this is worth mentioning for the impact of a second band of heavy rain.

Radar Simulation ECMWF Model —> slider

[metaslider id=80581]

Rainfall Potential

Radar Simulation NAM 3 Km Model —> slider

[metaslider id=80596]

Rainfall Potential

This shows a trough on the north side of the storm to focus a second band of heavy rain (over 1 inch) across central and northern Maryland into south PA.

Storm Animation: GFS Model

This model shows a similar rain path as the ECMWF. I am showing this to highlight the next wave of rain for all of our region on Tuesday.

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Also See:

NOAA Winter Outlook Leaves Room For More Snow With Mild ‘Seasonal Average’ Temperatures

Moderate Drought For Half of Maryland and Virginia: Drought Monitor

Many areas inland from the cities should drop into the 30s by tomorrow morning. This could do it. See the look at when we normally expect the first frost in this link.