Thursday October 17 2019

The wind machine in place today is from record Low Pressure in New England. That’s the storm that brought us rain yesterday and pulling in gusts to 50 mph today. The next system is forming in the southwest Gulf of Mexico and just identified as Potential Tropical Cyclone 16 from the National Hurricane Center. It is likely to get a name by tonight as it continues to organize.

Satellite Loop

The wind flow streamlines have been overlaid on this image. The circulation is in the lower left corner…

Further development is expected. Winds are currently 35 mph, but within a day it should bump over 40 mph and get named Nestor. Warnings are already up for parts of coastal Louisiana to Florida. The forecast track takes it into North Carolina by Sunday morning.

Conditions from NWS

SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.4N 95.7W
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM E OF TAMPICO MEXICO
ABOUT 620 MI...995 KM SW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES

European Model Forecast —> slider

The Low Pressure will track inland this weekend and pass off of the North Carolina/Virginia coast Sunday. This will be close enough to brig some rain into Maryland and tropical storm winds especially south of the Bay Bridge.

[metaslider id=80532]

Forecast Animation GFS Model

While I think the model is not giving the potential rain on Sunday justice, there will be another rain event to follow on Tuesday

Wind Forecast Ocer 40 mph

The best chance locally for this to occur will be Sunday morning and in southern Maryland and the southern half of Delmarva

National Hurricane Center Forecasts

It’s likely that this will be hybrid storm and post tropical cyclone when it reaches the Mid Atlantic Sunday.

Note: The thing to watch is is there will be a north bump of verification compared to the modeling. We have seen that with prior systems.

I will have another update tonight.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from the Mississippi/Alabama
border to the Ochlockonee River, Florida.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from Grand Isle, Louisiana to
the Mouth of the Pearl River.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect east of the Ochlockonee River to
Yankeetown, Florida.

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect from Indian Pass, Florida, to
Clearwater, Florida.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Mississippi/Alabama border to the Ochlockonee River, Florida
* Grand Isle, Louisiana to the Mouth of the Pearl River

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East of the Ochlockonee River to Yankeetown, Florida

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Indian Pass to Clearwater, Florida

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Also See:

Moderate Drought For Half of Maryland and Virginia: Drought Monitor

Many areas inland from the cities should drop into the 30s by tomorrow morning. This could do it. See the look at when we normally expect the first frost in this link.