Saturday October 12 2019

I am sitting at 3,000 Ft elevation in Garrett County waiting to be in the Autumn Glory Festival today. But I want to start with what’s been happening at sea level all week. I have had lots of questions about why the water level has been so high and flooding has occurred along the Chesapeake Bay and Ocean shore.

The reasons: Subtropical Storm Melissa AND almost Full Moon!

A storm has been spinning off of the coast much of this week. It was recently upgraded to ‘subtropical’ as winds are 50 mph, but it does not have the purely warm core center.  Combine that with High Pressure in eastern Canada, and the easterly winds have piled up high water along the coast. Also, the moon will be full tomorrow. So each tide cycle has grown stronger and the water has not been able to drain out of the bay.


Full Weather Set Up

The storm that brought snow to Colorado and now in the northern plains, has a trailing cold front that will cross our region in a weakened form. this will bring some showers to the mountains and some into northern suburbs of Maryland. But wait until you seen the temperature contrast.  A warm day in central Maryland but it will be 20 to 30 degrees colder this afternoon in the mountains… Including here at Autumn Glory.


Morning Temperatures 

McHenry is one of the warmest spots in the state, but is at the high for the day. Temps will drop into the afternoon and end up 20 to 30 degrees colder than central Maryland later.

Local Weather Stats:

Saturday October 12, 2019 in Baltimore

Average High:  68ºF

Record High: 89ºF in 1954

Average  Low: 47ºF

Record Low:  29ºF in 1964

Sunrise: 7:12 AM

Sunset 6:32 PM  

*Daylight = 2:30 shorter than yesterday 

*Bay Water Temperature = 68ºF at Thomas Pt. Light House


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Weather Forecast

Rain Radar Simulation —> slider

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Temperature Simulation —> slider

I’ve highlighted Garrett County and metro Baltimore to show the contrast. Morning temps will be similar, but the afternoon will be very different

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Sunday Weather

Frost and Freeze Warnings may be issued, and include the nearby suburbs.


Rain Shifts To Southern and Eastern Maryland

It will not rain all day, but morning showers and then more rain will develop by evening.


Sunday Afternoon 

The balance of temperatures will be contrasted with sun in the mountains and clouds with some rain around the Bay.


Rain Animation

Here we can see the development of the rain Sunday evening in southern Maryland and Delmarva.  The next push of rain for the entire region will be Wednesday

Temperature Outlook



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Also See:

Moderate Drought For Half of Maryland and Virginia: Drought Monitor


Many areas inland from the cities should drop into the 30s by tomorrow morning. This could do it.  See the look at when we normally expect the first frost in this link.


Snowy Winters Following A Hot and Dry September


Baltimore Weather At BWI May Not Be As Hot As Reported

Construction at the airport close to the weather station may be added artificial heat. Click here or the image for the details.


October is Breast Cancer Awareness Month

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Other  Links:



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