Thursday Evening March 14 2019

This evening severe storms are ripping across Ohio. I have had a few people ask me if they are going to reach us, because their app or cable weather station suggested storms overnight. I want to put your mind at ease and show you the most likely way this will play out. You will probably like what it will bring us when you start Friday. Often in spring, strong storms will make weather headlines for a few days, then weaken by the time the system reaches us. This will be one of those times.

Severe Storm Risk: Thursday 

This map from NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center shows the ‘enhanced’ region where the worst storms already broke out. Compare to the evening radar below.


Regional Dopple Radar Composite

The closest line of storms at 7:30 PM was in central Ohio.  But they will have trouble crossing the mountains thanks to loss of heat from the setting sun AND the energy from the storm is pulling north into the Great Lakes.


Radar Simulation Ending 8 AM Friday

Notice the line of storms not being able to pass east of Pittsburgh. We could get a few stray showers before sunrise, but nothing well organized.

What we will get will be gusty winds that keep the warm air in place at daybreak.


Friday Morning Temperatures 

We should wake up with temps in the upper 50s to lower 60s. It will feel like spring!

*Remember last Friday??? We had snow!

11 AM Friday 

Temperatures should peak close to noon. There is a chance we get back close to 70ºF again, even though this model is not showing it. With the wind from the south, places by the bay will be cooler, in the 40s and 50s.

This is also the time when the energy left over form the faded line of storms will engage with the warm air. This is a prefrontal trough… So as showers develop, it will not mark the colder air. We will notice that arriving Friday night.

Radar Simulation —> slider

Showers will develop between noon and 6 PM in north central Maryland. Some may contain thunder.

Another line of storms in southern Virginia and Southern Maryland will have a little more heat to work on… So they may be stronger.

[metaslider id=74688]


Severe Storm Risk Friday 

This shaded area is for marginal regular thunderstorms. We could hear a few clap pf thunder, but don’t expect an outbreak of severe weather. The marginal chance for anything turning severe will be southern Delmarva around Virginia Beach.


Temperature Trend: Animation Through Sunday Morning 

Saturday is likely to stay in the lower 40s, with colder winds.

Sunday Morning (when the blue shading arrives) is when it should drop into the 20s.  We are not done with the cold air



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Related Links:

Winter Outlook

My Winter Outlook 2018-19: Multiple Nor’Easters and more snow

Was Your County Not Included?

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November 15 Snow Reports- Interactive Map Compared To My Forecast

Winter Snow And Top 5 Wet Years 

Snowfall Seasons at Beginning and End of Top 5 Wet Years In Baltimore


Related Winter Outlooks

Tropical Hints At Winter Snow

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Sweet Spot: Hitting 70ºF on Halloween is followed by more winter snow

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Winter Weather Folklore

NOAA Winter 2018-2019 Outlook Explained: This Actually Supports Snow

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Maryland Winters: Snowfall Maps and Baltimore Snow History