Sunday March 3 2019

The winter storm is about to begin, but there is so much I want to share with you. While this has the potential of being the biggest snow of the season for some, it may be mostly rain for others just 40 miles away. It is also important to note the temperatures. As the snow beings this afternoon, may places will be above freezing until evening. This could be a heavy wet snow, some flakes will be wasted to melting. Basically, more snow will lay and stay on the grass, while many roads stay wet.

Winter Storm Warning/Winter Weather Advisory

The Winter Storm Warning now includes Cecil County along with the northern and western counties in Maryland.

Northern Delaware, metro Philadelphia and Southern PA all are in for the top snow this time.

Winter Weather Advisory includes a narrow band around of metro Baltimore.

This includes eastern Montgomery/Howard, and upper Eastern Shore’s Queen Annes and Kent Counties.

Note: There is a big bust potential (either a lot more or a lot less) right along the I-95 corridor.

Snow Storm Notes

? Big Winter Storm JUST NORTH OF BALTIMORE. The city will be on the edge of the snow. South of the city will be mostly rain

? Temps will be above freezing this afternoon. Snow from colder clouds, but roads likely wet until evening.

? Slick roads? Most likely late afternoon and tonight in colder zones. Possible Monday morning (northern zones)

? North: Over 5 inches possible. Metro areas up to 3 inches

❄️ Ends after midnight

?❓School delays possible Monday

Morning Set Up

I see some snow on radar, but the main event will arrive during the early afternoon. Before we get to that, check out the morning temperatures. This is a very important element in this event.

We are starting with temps above freezing. It will remain above freezing through the afternoon.

I can snow from colder clouds when it is above freezing on the ground. But that also means not all will stick. Snowfall rates and lower sun angle after 4 or 5 PM will start road stickage in the cold zones. Metro areas have a better chance fro road issues after dark

Storm Animation

Of course we have another storm with the snow.rain line right through Baltimore. This is going to be a tough call for some.

North of Baltimore will be mostly snow.
South of Baltimore will be mostly rain.
In the middle? That is the hard part.

Forecast Timelines

Compare two models here and see the subtle difference. I am leaning on the European (ECMWF). But I am showing the NAM 3 Km since it is one bust scenario that is slightly warmer with the snow line pushed just a little north. It is important to see if this busts, what that could still look like.

European Model- Colder Solution

ECWMF simulation —> slider

Note the Freezing Line! This is important as it may snow heavily in areas above 32ºF. That may limit the impact on the roads at times.

[metaslider id=74370]

Monday Morning Temperatures

This colder solution does bring the freezing line into Baltimore… Bringing the potential for icing at daybreak…. But the snow should be gone by then.