Friday March 1 2019

We have a Winter Weather Advisory for snow and an icy mix tonight into Saturday morning. I want to let you know that my posts will be limited this weekend. We have family in town from a few states and a few big events tonight and Saturday. Basically, this is one winter event I do not want. But I did want to share the latest info. So here is a quick look.

The HRRR Model was adding extra concern as it was trending colder with more snow into Maryland. However it appear to have moved back north a little with more reasonable expectations for snow. Below is a comparison of the HRRR to the GFS and European Models.

It is important to note that the Winter Weather Advisory is for the normally colder counties north and west of Baltimore. Temperatures will be within a degree or two of freezing, which can play a role in stickage or wet roads.

Basically the snow and icy mix line will be between Baltimore and the PA line. But there is an zone of about 30 miles where it may set up north or south. That can make or break your traveling tonight and tomorrow morning.

Model Comparisons

• Blue = snow
• Pink = icy mix
• Green = rain

Timing on all models will be between 7 PM and ending by 5 AM

HRRR Model Snapshot at 9 PM

 

 

HRRR Snow Potential

This shows 1 to 3 inches between Frederick, Westminster, and York PA.

 

European Model Snapshot at 1 AM

 

European Model Snow Potential

This shows the most snow (4 to 5 inches) in a band between Frederick, Westminster, and York PA.

 

GFS Model

 

 

GFS Snow Potential

This shows the lead amount of snow, with none in Frederick.

Westminster, and York PA between 1 and 2 inches.

 

Red the full Winter Weather Advisory report. Click on the map below for more

 

 

ALL FITF  Apparel 

 

 

Related Links:

Winter Outlook

My Winter Outlook 2018-19: Multiple Nor’Easters and more snow

Was Your County Not Included?

Click this map for more on the regional forecast zones

Interactive Snow Report

November 15 Snow Reports- Interactive Map Compared To My Forecast

Winter Snow And Top 5 Wet Years 

Snowfall Seasons at Beginning and End of Top 5 Wet Years In Baltimore

 

Related Winter Outlooks

Tropical Hints At Winter Snow

Solar Cycle: When Sun Spots Are Low We Get More Snow

El Nino Modoki May Enhance Snow Chances

Sweet Spot: Hitting 70ºF on Halloween is followed by more winter snow

Will A Wet Summer Bring A Snowy Winter?

 

Winter Weather Folklore

NOAA Winter 2018-2019 Outlook Explained: This Actually Supports Snow

Winter Outlook From Two Different Farmers Almanacs

Maryland Winters: Snowfall Maps and Baltimore Snow History