Thursday February 28 2019

It will snow in our area Friday morning. That seems like a pretty good lock right now. The good thing about this event is that the timing will be mostly between 3 and 8 AM, so it will begin and do its thing early enough for schools to make their decision if there is an impact.  The other good thing is that it will be done early, so by late morning and noon travel should not be a problem.

Temperatures will be cold enough for stickage. In fact most of the model runs overnight have shown an increase in how much will fall, so a better chance for an impact on area schools. There is one model that is a little warmer, cutting the snow line through Baltimore and north, but that is the exception. See more below.

Morning Weather Map

Two systems that look minor now, will be joining forced and pulse right over our area just before sunrise Friday. March is coming in like a Lion. Wait until you see the cool down next week.


Local Weather Stats For February 28, 2019 in Baltimore

Average High:  48ºF

Record High: 76ºF in 1976

Average  Low: 29ºF

Record Low:  5ºF in 1934

                         *Record Snow:  = 5.2″ in 1949

Sunrise: 6:40 AM

Sunset 5:57 PM 

*Daylight = 2:31 longer than yesterday 

*Bay Water Temperature = 39ºF at Thomas Pt. Light House 


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Morning  Temperatures

Afternoon High Temperatures

  • Sky: Mostly Sunny
  • Wind: Light


Friday Morning Snow

This will be roughly a 5 hour event with the bulk of snow before sunrise.


Snow Timeline

This is the warmest solution, but also the outlier

I wanted to show this first, then compare to the more likely snow set up below.

NAM 3 Km —> slider

[metaslider id=74026]


How Much Snow? The lowest potential

This shows 1 to 3 inches along I-70 and northward. But not much south of Baltimore.



European Model

This snapshot around sunrise shows a wider range of moderate snow. This also shows the freezing farther south… line through Washington DC


Morning Temperatures: Cold Enough For Stickage


How Much Snow? This Is Where The Totals Look Higher And More Widespread

The European brings much of metro Baltimore and southern PA 2 to 3 inches.

Washington and Annapolis around 2 inches


The GFS brings much of metro Baltimore and southern PA 2 to 4 inches. This includes Washington and Annapolis.


The Canadian Model was way to high in the prior run. It is still on the higher side, but more in line now.


My Call For Snowfall:

I will post my map in my next post this morning.


Weekend Weather

The next system may be a little colder as well. There is agreement that Sunday will bring a mix of rain and snow, with snow trying to hang on for the colder inland suburbs. It will be done before Monday, but might have some lingering effects if there is stickage. This will also be followed by a surge of much colder air next week.



Temperature Outlook

There will be a surge of much colder air next week.


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Related Links:

Winter Outlook

My Winter Outlook 2018-19: Multiple Nor’Easters and more snow

Was Your County Not Included?

Click this map for more on the regional forecast zones

Interactive Snow Report

November 15 Snow Reports- Interactive Map Compared To My Forecast

Winter Snow And Top 5 Wet Years 

Snowfall Seasons at Beginning and End of Top 5 Wet Years In Baltimore


Related Winter Outlooks

Tropical Hints At Winter Snow

Solar Cycle: When Sun Spots Are Low We Get More Snow

El Nino Modoki May Enhance Snow Chances

Sweet Spot: Hitting 70ºF on Halloween is followed by more winter snow

Will A Wet Summer Bring A Snowy Winter?


Winter Weather Folklore

NOAA Winter 2018-2019 Outlook Explained: This Actually Supports Snow

Winter Outlook From Two Different Farmers Almanacs

Maryland Winters: Snowfall Maps and Baltimore Snow History