Monday February 11 2019

The snow and ice are barely letting up on the north and and it will continue. This update for the Winter Weather Advisory covers the areas that were already hit hardest, and will continue to be impacted by the winter weather through Tuesday morning. I think snow amounts may be close to doubled before more freezing rain. There will also be some snow and ice impacting south of this zone, which I will highlight in the radar simulations and temperature maps below.

As for schools, I think the plan will repeat: If yours were closed today, there is a good chance they will be tomorrow. If they were delayed today, a good change they are delayed as well.

Winter Weather Advisory

In Maryland until until 10 AM (Cecil Co until noon)
In Pennsylvania until 4 PM

NEW MAP UPDATED: Click here to see the new report- INCLUDES MORE OF CENTRAL MARYLAND

Personal Note:

Thank you for your patience as my web site has some issues in the past 24 hours. It should be able to handle to traffic spikes, but I am looking to improve the design and delivery to make reading my notes and maps much easier.

Current Set Up

The warming above freezing is on schedule. Snow remains paling on the north side, mixing with sleet at times between Finksburg and Towson to White Marsh. More sleet or rain south to BWI. Then all rain between Washington and Annapolis. It will turn colder over the next few hours.

Quick Cast:

If you have snow or sleet still falling, expect roads to get icy again after 4 PM (as the sun angle gets low)
If you has snow or ice this morning, plan for possible wintry mix and some icing after 6 PM.
If you just had rain or thawed roads this morning, then you will likely stay just wet.

Scroll down for new weather maps below

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Temperature Drop this Evening

Please considerer how a few degrees and loss of daylight can quickly turn wet surfaces icy again between 4 PM and 6 PM

Radar Simulation 4 PM to 11 PM Today —> slider

Notice the sharp cutoff near I-70 and Baltimore

[metaslider id=73029]

Radar Simulation Midnight To 5 AM Tuesday —> slider

Ice and Freezing will develop and drop south. This will include the western side of Baltimore and may drop to northern Montgomery County.

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Morning Temperatures

If your schools were closed this morning, a very good chance they are closed again.
If they were delayed this morning, a very good chance they will be delayed again.
Anne Arundel and metro Washington might be the difference and remain wet.

Additional Snowfall- HRRR Model

Northern zones 2 to 4 inches. Where it has stayed snow, their full event total should be over 5 inches.

Baltimore 1 to 2 inches. All areas turn to sleet and freezing rain before sunrise

Additional Snowfall- NAM 3K Model

Similar placement of 2 to 4 new inches. Where it has stayed snow, their full event total should be over 5 inches.

Up to 1 in Baltimore. These places should turn back to ice before sunrise.

Tuesday Ice Expectation:

Daybreak:

Expect ice in the typical areas just north and west of I-95/Baltimore. Schools likely delayed or closed again.

Noon:

The ice line will slowly retreat to the north. These often do not behave as models suggest, so its possible to remain icy longer.

Late Afternoon:

Most of the region should be thawing, but some pockets of colder air may linger… including the Hereford Zone.

My Original Snow Call Again

I think this is holding up pretty well.

Storm Notes:

The snow will be a minor impact on Monday morning.

The transition zone will be between Washington and Baltimore. This region will be within one to two degrees of freezing. That will make or break if there is impact on the roads.

The biggest impact will be snow and icing Monday night into Tuesday morning!

Faster change to rain along and south of I-95

Longer snow and ice impact northwest of the big cities.

Nearby NW suburbs likely 2″ to 4″ snow is expected. That would be up to 1″ to 2″ of snow from each each round.
Farther northwest encircled in white could get 5″+. That is potential, not a promise. That would be up to 2″ from round 1 AND 3″+ from round 2 before mixing to ice.
In Maryland: Northern Harford, northern Baltimore, Carroll, western Howard, Frederick, and Washington Counties
Southern Pennsylvania: including Adams, York, and Lancaster Counties.

FITF and SnowStix