Sunday Evening February 10 2019

The Winter Weather Advisory map has been filled in for most of our area. Snow is showing up on radar, but it may take a few hours to saturate the atmosphere and reach the ground. Some virga is common at the onset as an arctic air mass is being replaced by a storm.

NEW POST: See the Monday Morning Conditions and new temps, radar simulation, and live MDOT Plow Tracking

The big question is how will your commute or school be impacted in the morning. Not all in the advisory will be below freezing. But I see the freezing line set up between Washington and Baltimore. It will be worth checking in early for real time updates to track the morning conditions. The new information in this update includes:

Updated radar simulation through Monday morning.
Temperatures at daybreak to track the freezing line.
Winter Storm Watch: Northern areas now identified for heavier snow and ice for Round 2 of the storm Monday night and Tuesday. I know some of your questioned my initial forecast of 5″+ of snow in the northern zones, but The NWS statement now agrees with it. Compare their statement to my first call below.

Winter Weather Advisory Through Monday morning: Now includes most of Delmarva. Where it remains below freezing, 1 to 2 inches of snow is possibly by morning. Where is warms south of Baltimore, there will be a slushy coating.

Winter Storm Watch Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning: Northern Maryland (Northern Harford and Baltimore, Carroll, Carroll, Frederick, Washington, Allegany) and southern PA (including York and Lancaster).

The NWS Statement reads:

WHAT…1 to 3 inches of snow is expected through Monday morning.
There is the potential for 5 or more inches of snow and additional freezing rain Monday night into Tuesday, especially near the Pennsylvania border. Snow will overspread the area through 9 pm this evening. Snow will change to a mix of sleet and freezing rain between 1 AM and 4 AM overnight, and that will continue into Monday morning. Precipitation may mix with or
even change to rain late Monday morning and afternoon before changing back to a wintry mix of snow, sleet and freezing rain Monday night and continuing into Tuesday morning.

My Call Again

Storm Notes:

The snow will be a minor impact on Monday morning.

The transition zone will be between Washington and Baltimore. This region will be within one to two degrees of freezing. That will make or break if there is impact on the roads.

The biggest impact will be snow and icing Monday night into Tuesday morning!

Faster change to rain along and south of I-95

Longer snow and ice impact northwest of the big cities.

Nearby NW suburbs likely 2″ to 4″ snow is expected. That would be up to 1″ to 2″ of snow from each each round.
Farther northwest encircled in white could get 5″+. That is potential, not a promise. That would be up to 2″ from round 1 AND 3″+ from round 2 before mixing to ice.
In Maryland: Northern Harford, northern Baltimore, Carroll, western Howard, Frederick, and Washington Counties
Southern Pennsylvania: including Adams, York, and Lancaster Counties.

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Evening Radar

A solid line of moisture is set up. The HRRR Model below suggest there may not be much of a lull of snow in the cold zone. That could continue much of the day Monday… But the thaw line will reach north of Washington/Annapolis by daybreak

Radar Simulaiton

This high resolution update suggest not much break in the snow zone. there will be a gap in the radar field during the day. The snow zone might not get much new accumulation after 8 AM. But the second round will resurge the snow later in the day and at night.

HRRR Model —> slider

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Monday Morning Temps

School And Travel Impact

The freezing line will set up north of Rt 50 but should stay near or south of Baltimore. This will be worth checking in early for impact on the roads. The pavement is cold enough to support stickage. So road conditions will be determined by local air temps and cleanup crews.

FITF and SnowStix

Part 2 Monday Evening Into Tuesday

This will be a case to check back frequently. The freezing line will be draped across our area but a shift of 30 to 50 miles can change the impact for about 1 million people.

This is where it gets more complicated. After some daytime warming, snow and ice are expected to redevelop Monday evening and night. The European Model supports that here. However, there has been a trend all season for storms to verify north. That could shift the freezing line north as well. This may be why the advisories for the second part have been left out for now.

Complete Storm Tracking

European (ECWMF) —-> slider

Note that in addition to new snowfall, there will be an extended period of freezing rain. This model only shows 6 hours increments. I will have more details with higher resolution models my next report.

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How Much Snow?

As I wrote in my snowcast:

Nearby NW suburbs likely 2″ to 4″ snow is expected. That would be up to 1″ to 2″ of snow from each each round.
Farther northwest encircled in white could get 5″+. That is potential, not a promise. That would be up to 2″ from round 1 AND 3″+ from round 2 before mixing to ice.

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