Wednesday January 16 2019

There are two winter events on the way and both will be a mix of snow and rain across our region. The first system will arrive with some showers Thursday afternoon, but the bulk of the snow and ice will fall overnight. Since the freezing line will be split across our area, this is where we break out the geography and point to the normally colder inland areas west and north of I-95 for the likely impact Friday morning.

The timelines below should help to reinforce what I am thinking. You will find two sliders separating Thursday and Friday radar simulations. Also look at the temperate on Friday morning, then compare the NAM Model snow map to my call for snowfall.

As for the second event this looks like rain for most Saturday night ending as snow Sunday with an abrupt cool down and flash freeze. I will get into more on that system in my next report.

Thursday Radar Simulation –> slider

Showers may mix with sleet between 4 and 7 PM. Steadier snow will develop west and north of the cities but spread across the cities at night.

Evening Activities may need a last moment adjustment. The spread of early showers and any stickage before 8 PM Thursday is marginal. After that travel will be getting slippery in the snow zone.

The Freezing Line in purple is the best indication of possible road impact. Otherwise snow may stick in warmer areas just on the grass.

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Friday Morning Radar Simulation –> slider

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Temperatures Friday Morning

NAM Model Snowfall

My Call For Snowfall and Impact

Notes: This may be the classic set up for impact on roads in the normally colder zones west and north of the main cities. I-95 is often the dividing line for freezing temperatures. As of now it appears there will be minimal to no impact in Southern Maryland.

The weekend appears to keep the blockbuster storm just north with central PA to New England in the heavy snow range. I will have more on that next.