November 15 2018

We need to look at the calendar and the date again. It is mid November and here we are in a legitimate winter storm. This definitely overachieved and proves that just a few degrees and a few miles can make a huge difference. The storm produced colder air aloft that allowed the falling snow to quickly cool the warm ground. That was the surprise, and the net result was a little more stickage for some and a lot for others. Some places will double their expected snowfall.

Record Snow for November 15

BWI = 1.7″ of snow

That was the report from Baltimore as of 1 PM.

The breaks the record of 1.2″ set on the date in 1908. That was 110 years years ago!!! That was part of a larger two day storm that brought 4.8″ between Nov 14-15, 1908.

That pales in comparison to the 4 to 6 inch reports that are coming across northern Maryland Counties and into southern PA. There is more on the way. In fact the northern areas will have more snow and ice as the snowpack will help to hold the cold longer. This will add additional problems overnight. Another burst of snow early Friday morning may add to the list of things to clear up and questions about schools for Friday morning.

Northern Maryland and Southern PA range between 4 and 6 inches of snow as of 3 PM

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Here’s the latest

Winter Weather Advisory and Winter Storm Warnings

Official from the National Weather Service

Winter Storm Warning – Until 4 AM Friday: The general area will get 4 to 6 inches of snow with up to 1/10 inch of ice. York and Lancaster PA until 8 AM with a little more snow. This area may remain near freezing all night AND add additional snow early Friday.

Winter Weather Advisory – Until 4 PM Thursday: General 1 to 3 inches with glaze of ice. This region should be above freezing tonight.

The Storm Set Up

This is not exactly like the prior coastal storms, but riding up the same track off the coast *Atmospheric Memory

Warmer air will try to move in from south to north. But inland west of I-83 will be delayed with freezing temps longer.
Warm air aloft will produce rain, but the thicker snow pack below will help lead to freezing rain.
Behind the storm, colder air will fill in with a final burst of snow form an upper level system. This may produce additional inch or so in the colder areas.
I don’t think the models can handle the freezing line well.. So I will hold off on temperature timeline maps until this evening.

Ending As Snow Friday Morning?

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Northern areas could pick up another 1-2 inches as this ends before sunrise Friday…

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My Snow Forecast Increased Again

This is why I usually start with a + sign… The upside potential has won here!

I have increased the snow on the north side to account for what has fallen already.

The northern zones are already near 5 inches as of 3 PM so adding to it in places that turn to sleet later should be easy. Plus there will be another 1 to 2 inches in the morning.

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