Monday October 22 2018

Temperatures this morning verify the Frost Advisory and Freeze Warning in place. Many areas in the 30s for many hours, so you might have ice to scrape or thaw off of your windshield. With sunshine and light winds, today will be nice and Tuesday will be the warmest day of the week. The focus will a storm developing out of the Gulf of Mexico set to hit us next weekend. Thoughts on that below.

Morning Temperatures

There are pockets of freezing temperatures around metro Baltimore and more across Virginia.

Frost Advisory/Freeze Warning

These expire at 10 AM but likely cancelled prior to that as the sun helps to thaw us out.

Local Weather Stats For October 22 in Baltimore

Average High: 65ºF

Record High: 85ºF in 1979

Average Low: 43ºF

Record Low: 31ºF in 1952

Sunrise: 7:23 AM

Sunset 6:17 PM

*Daylight = 2:24 shorter than yesterday

*Bay Water Temperature = 64ºF at Thomas Pt. Light House

Afternoon Temperatures

Temperature Outlook

Weekend Storm?

Yes, but how bad? Both models here are plotting 2 PM Sat Oct 27:

GFS Model Farther East	ICON Model Closer To The Coast

Have you heard about a strong Nor’Easter on the way? This event has been on models for over a week already, and I have not discussed it because it was too early. There here have already been changes. At one point this looked like a blizzard for inland New England and some snow into Maryland. That is not the case now. But like a winter storm, there is low confidence in forecasts more than one week away. So I waited until now to show it to you.

Here is a look from two models. The wide view is from the GFS Model, which seems to be having trouble keeping the storm organized. The second closer view is from the German ICON Model that is very similar to the European ECMWF (that has a copyright that limits showing their maps). This shows the track from the Gulf Coast to Virginia Beach similar to Hurricane Michael. There is part of my Atmospheric Memory. But this will turn more north… and it should bring us rain and wind next weekend.

GFS Model

Notice the track takes the Low Pressure center well east of Ocean City.