September 26 2018

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued for our area until 11 PM. This means the strong line of storms will have the potential to produce winds in excess of 58 mph, large hail over 1 inch diameter, and flash flooding in locally heavy downpours. There will be a strong line of storms with this potential but that is not a promise all areas will have this develop.  I have mentioned this line all day and as of 5 PM it looked much more impressive on radar than the simulation showed. That means looking at that timeline should also consider the storms are progressing a little faster as well.

 

Conditions at 5 PM

The wind direction across most of our areas is form the Southwest. But the kink is the Southeast wind on the Chesapeake Bay. That Bay Breeze often enhances the storm potential in Metro Baltimore. A convergence zone where the different winds meet up also will likely increase the rising air and storm potential. This is why the storms are expected to peak around central Maryland and the line may slow down for a few hours between I-70 and Rt 50.

 

Radar Loop: 2 Hours ending at 5 PM

Here is a comparison of the 5 PM Doppler Radar snapshot to compare to the 5 PM forecast from the HRRR Model.

 

 

Radar Simulation —> slider

The HRRR Model has underestimated the initial intensity, so the flare up will be more impressive. The timing also seems to be behind by about 1 hour. So the Baltimore beltway may see the storms arrive by 7 PM instead of 8 PM. I would still consider the line possibly slowing down or stalling in metro areas, keeping the heavy rain around a few extra hours.

[metaslider id=66214]

 

 

 

Keep In Touch Every Day

Click here to sign up for email alerts…. Just in case you don’t get the post on your social media feed

 

Please share your thoughts, best weather pics/video, or just keep in touch via social media

 

 

Love Maryland Shirt Designed By Jaiden

This shirt was designed by my ‘bonus’ daughter Jaiden. All proceeds will go to Just In Power Kids and free holistic therapy for kids in and post cancer treatment.

 

Order Here

Show your love for Maryland and make this 14 year old artist extra proud

 

 

 

 

 

 

Partner With Us. My wife Shannon and I started this non profit Just In Power Kids. We are building a network of Integrated Wellness Practitioners plus funds for kids in and post cancer treatment to get free sessions.

 

Get the award winning Kid Weather App I made with my oldest son and support our love for science, weather, and technology. Our 3 year anniversary of the release and our contribution to STEM education is this November. It has been downloaded in 60 countries, and works in both temperature scales. With your support we can expand on the fun introduction to science and real weather.