May 2 2018

As advertised and almost cliche, we went right from winter into summer. Well, we had a little transition, but just two weeks ago we had snow showers. Today, the record high temperature at Baltimore’s BWI was broken by two degrees. At 3:21 PM the temperature hit 90ºF. This temperature was 20 degrees above the average mark of 70ºF. Last year we had a more reasonable 76ºF.

Extreme Weather

The old record of 88ºF set in 1951, 1930, and 1913. I guess the third attempt to break that 1913 mark was the charm.

That 1913 year holds the record for tomorrow as well with 91ºF.

May 1930 had 4 record high dates (May 5th = 92ºF; May 7th = 96ºF; May 8th = 93ºF)

Often when we get a heat wave, there is a cluster of two or three days in a row with record high temperatures.  We have a chance to tie or break the record Thursday AND Friday.  Considering that we surpassed the forecast mean ensemble by 2 degrees, we can expect the results over the next two days to be warmer this:

 

Thursday Afternoon

Record High: 91ºF in 1913

*I believe we will verify warmer than the forecast and warmer than today. That should put us around 91ºF or so.

 

 

 

Friday Afternoon 

Record High: 90ºF in 2001

 

Storm Pattern Sends Our Heat- Weakens When It Reaches Us

The reason we have this extreme heat is the strong spring storm in the nation’s heartland. This outbreak of tornadoes you may have read about is focused on Oklahoma, Kansas, and Missouri today. Well ahead of this storm we get heat pumping in from the southwest.  The storms will ride into the lower Great Lakes and Ohio Valley, but weaken by the time the system reaches us Saturday.

 

Saturday Rain

The cold front will spread rain our way on Saturday. This looks like a slow mover and could extend much of the day. I know there are many plans that could be affected. I will have the higher resolution models hourly projections to share tomorrow… Hopefully that will help and hold off later. Right now it looks like all afternoon and evening are in play for rain.

 

 

Shine On

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