The National Weather Service has finally jumped on the snow bandwagon and upgraded the alerts for this storm.  A Winter Storm Warning is now in place for northern Baltimore and Harford Counties Maryland. This is for increased snow totals. The same story has expanded the Winter Weather Advisory to ti include Frederick, Montgomery, Prince Georges, Anne Arundel, and Baltimore City. This all fits in with my forecast from early with snow expectations. So if you were reading my earlier posts, you join in with me and say it is about time.

According to NWS forecasts: The Warning areas expect 4 to 7 inches. The Advisory areas will mostly get 1 to 2 inches with up to 4 possible. Carroll and Southern Harford Counties can get up top 5 inches. That matches my snowcast map see here with some wiggle room along I-95 in Harford and Cecil County. That is that hardest to pin down stickage due to influence near the Bay.

Many areas in central Maryland have already had their burst of snow tonight with up to 1 inch and road stickage despite temps above freezing.

My Official Snowcast Map


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Compare To National Weather Service Zones Maps

Metro Baltimore/Frederick

There could spread 30 miles form 1 to 6 inches just in Baltimore County

Frederick is now in the 1 to 2 inch range from NWS. I read many saw just rain on their apps. I don’t follow weather app forecasts. Check them again and see if they updated


Snow Simulation —> slider

  • The NAM 3 Km model was showing rain in areas already getting snow. So the expanding snow is ahead of schedule and may help your area cool. *If you get stickage, it will be noticeable between midnight and 2 AM
  • *Watch the phasing between 6 to 8 AM as the western energy feeds into the coastal storm and enhances the snow. See the notes below.

[metaslider id=59912]


Two parts of this storm:

  1. Overnight moderate snow. This will expand the snow southward after midnight. Places that get stickage could have 1 to 3 inches on the ground at daybreak. But within 10 to 20 miles of I-95 it may only stick on the grass.
  2. Moderate to heavy snow develops during the morning through noon, but will battle the sun angle for stickage and lose out eventually to warmer ground.

The snow line will be split across our area. This model is not perfect, so there is some wiggle room for adjustment. But it will be a tough call and there is bust potential on snow depending on stickage. Definitely more snow will lay and stay north and northeast of the city.




York is on the west end of the heavy snow. More will fall east towards Lancaster.




Northeastern Maryland, Philadelphia, and New Jersey

Thew snow gradient here could be 50 miles from 1 inch to 1 foot of snow. The Poconos will win the high end of snow.



Please click here to see my prior post to compare the NAM 3 Km, Canadian, and GFS Model snow updates



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Also See:

My Winter Outlook 2017-2018 for more snow

Maryland Winters

La Nina Formed: What it could mean to our winter

NOAA Winter Outlook: Not The Best But Not The Worst For Snow

Two Farmers Almanacs Winter 2018 Outlooks

Winter Weather Folkore: Suggestions from Animals and Crops

First Frost and Freeze Dates For Maryland (southern PA and northern VA)

My Preliminary Winter Outlook Notes

Low Snow Winters In Baltimore: To Repeat Or Not Repeat

NOAA Ranks Blizzard 2016 4th Worst Snowstorm On Record

Blizzard 2016 Record Top Snowstorm: Area Totals

Extreme Weather of 2015 balanced out on both ends