February 17 2018

A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for parts of our region for this afternoon and tonight. I wanted to start with morning temperatures to show that after two very warm days, the colder air has arrived… inland. All of the areas in the map above that are near or below 30ºF are where the best chance for snow stickage will be. But we will warm up during the day before the rain and snow arrive. Many places will get snow with air and ground temperatures above freezing limiting stickage to grassy areas while roads are likely to stay wet.

The entire event should be done by midnight. It is moving faster! This is a complicated system, but I will try to simply it with all the relevant snow maps below. Including a timeline radar simulation and comparing my snowcast to computer models and NWS.

Winter Weather Advisory Unit Midnight

Starts at 2 PM in Virginia, West Virginia and Maryland (counties in purple)
Start at 4 PM in Pennsylvania

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Stats For February 16

Note: A few people have asked me about the term normal vs using average. Scientifically ‘average’ is a better term for the stats below, but The National Weather Service has used the ‘normal’ term in their climate data. I have switched it below to satisfy the fellow science geeks.

Average High: 45ºF

Record High: 76ºF in 19576

Average Low: 27ºF

*Former Record Low: +3ºF in 1958

Snow Record: 78″ in 1893

Seasonal Snow To Date (at BWI): 6.5″

Sunrise: 6:55 AM

Sunset 5:45 PM

*Daylight = 2:25 longer than yesterday

*Bay Water Temperature = 37ºF at Thomas Pt. Light House

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Weather Set Up

The Low Pressure was in east Texas this morning and will be moving in a hurry along the old front. This will try to move back north and catch up to some of the cold air in place. The storm will generate its own cold air so it may start as rain and change to snow during the afternoon as it gets heavier and drags down colder air from the clouds.

Rain/Snow Timeline Today

—> slider

The system may start with light rain and sleet then transition snow as it gets heavier and drags down colder air from the clouds. This will happen between 4 and 6 PM. The heaviest snow will be 6 PM to 10 PM and then end for most by midnight.

[metaslider id=58138]

Temperatures:

This is VERY Important! It is going to be difficult to get all of the snow to stick when the ground is warm. Out potential snow falling will not match what is measured (with your SnowStix). The snow will fall from colder clouds, but the surface air and ground temperatures will be on the border of freezing for inland areas. If you live by I-95 or the Bay, it will be even hard for the snow to stick and accumulate.

Snow Impact: Where will it stick and accumulate?

This is the map I have shown in may prior two posts. I still stand by this as it lines up with where the freezing line will reach and climatologically favored colder places are.

My Original Call for Snowfall Frost Posted Friday Morning

Far northern suburbs 3 to 5 inches. This is near and north of the Pennsylvania line into York and Lancaster. The best area for stickage and icy roads Sunday morning.
2 to 4 inches much of Frederick (north of the city), Carroll, Baltimore, Hartford (north of Bel Air)
1 to 2 inches in metro areas near ad west of I-95 (away from the Bay), but most roads stay wet! Might get icy Sunday morning.
Mixed snow and sleet south, but the ground is too warm for stickage

Compare to the computer models

National Weather Service Snow Maps Below

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Snowfall Forecast Maps

National Weather Service Regional Zone Maps

Notes:

NWS has increased these totals a little but still in the same general set up as listed below (which I posted earlier as well)

Northern suburbs 2 to 4 inches- The best area for stickage and icy roads Sunday morning.
General 1 to 2 inches in metro areas, but most roads stay wet!
Mixed snow and sleet south, but the ground is too war for stickage

Note: Winter Storm Warnings are in effect for the northern suburbs of Philadelphia. Snow in Cecil County and northern Delmarva has increased here but will still battle the warm ground.

Please share your thoughts, best weather pics/video, or just keep in touch via social media

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