Friday February 16 2018

A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for parts of our region for Saturday afternoon through midnight. This is based on the event that will ride along the old cold front just as the cold air is settling into place. There will be plenty of moisture in a short period of time to produce a moderate snowfall my focus for my first call for snowfall is that the ground is warm and the air will be warm cutting back on how much snow can lay and stay. Thus stickage and accumulation are not going to match all the flakes that actually fall. The National Weather Service did increase their totals just a little bit and you can compare our maps below.

The Winter Weather Advisory in Maryland includes northern Harford, Baltimore, western Howard and Montgomery counties. All of Carroll, Frederick, and points west and south down the I-81 stretch in VA. This areas begins at 2 PM

The Winter Weather Advisory Pennsylvania begins at 4 PM.

Below are forecast maps that point out the snow and freezing line. That plays into my forecast which you can compare to the computer model projections and the National Weather Service regional snow maps below.

Snow Impact: Where will it stick and accumulate?

This is the map I have shown in may prior two posts. I still stand by this as it lines up with where the freezing line will reach and climatologically favored colder places are.

Saturday Afternoon and Evening Snow

This may be a situation where it starts as rain or a light mix mid afternoon. It appears the dynamics of the Low Pressure will determine the snow by increasing the intensity. Thus, lighter precipitation will be rain, but heavier will drag down colder air from aloft.

I am showing the NAM 3 Km Model because this had the best accuracy for timing and tracking all winter. Follow the freezing line, but I still question the higher snow accumulation below.

Between 4 and 6 PM we should be under a wide area of wet snow (blue), but notice the freezing line to the west and north of Baltimore and Washington. This radar simulation shows it in full swing by evening.

Temperatures at the same time frame of 6 PM

Snow can fall from colder clouds while it is warmer on the ground. This will keep most roads in the warmer areas wet. I do see potential travel issues for:

Western Howard and Montgomery Counties. Most of Frederick, Carroll, northern Baltimore, Harford and parts of Cecil in Maryland… and much of Southern Pennsylvania.

The snow that starts sooner, may begin to move away by midnight

Notice the freezing line, still north and west of the cities. That means the snow in urban areas and along I-95 is more likely to stick on the colder grass but not the roads.

Sunday Morning Freeze?

The colder air at sunrise on Sunday will barely reach urban areas, so there could be some icy spots. But the main issues will continue to be in the areas listed above.

My Original Call for Snowfall Frost Posted Friday Morning

Far northern suburbs 3 to 5 inches. This is near and north of the Pennsylvania line into York and Lancaster. The best area for stickage and icy roads Sunday morning.
2 to 4 inches much of Frederick (north of the city), Carroll, Baltimore, Hartford (north of Bel Air)
1 to 2 inches in metro areas near ad west of I-95 (away from the Bay), but most roads stay wet! Might get icy Sunday morning.
Mixed snow and sleet south, but the ground is too warm for stickage

Compare to the computer models

The Canadian squashes the snow band farther south

The NAM 3 Km is still too high in my opinion.

I trust the timeline and freezing line. Not the total accumulation

National Weather Service Snow Maps Below

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Snowfall Forecast Maps

National Weather Service Regional Zone Maps

Notes:

NWS has increased these totals a little but still in the same general set up as listed below (which I posted earlier as well)

Northern suburbs 2 to 4 inches- The best area for stickage and icy roads Sunday morning.
General 1 to 2 inches in metro areas, but most roads stay wet!
Mixed snow and sleet south, but the ground is too war for stickage

Note: Winter Storm Warnings are in effect for the northern suburbs of Philadelphia. Snow in Cecil County and northern Delmarva has increased here but will still battle the warm ground.

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