January 10 2018

The notion of low temperatures near or below freezing instead of the entire day staying below that mark is where we are at… and it will be getting warmer. It looks like fog may be a common scene in the mornings as well, especially if you are near the water as we have the warmer air move in.

The storm track will shift to our west and bring in a surge of temperatures this week you may not have thought we would see again. Yes, we should reach the 60s by Friday, but it will come with some rain.  I want to remind you that the is similar to what happened in January 1996 just one week after the blizzard, there was a surge of heavy rain and warm air that led to flooding. This time, we don’t have the snow pack, but there may be ice jams on the water ways that could clog up.

Stats For January 10

Normal High:  41ºF

Record High:  70ºF in 1950

Normal Low: 24ºF

*Former Record Low: -2ºF in 1875 

Snow Record: 5.0″ in 1965

Seasonal Snow To Date (at BWI): 5.2″

Sunrise: 7:26 AM

Sunset 5:03 PM

*Daylight = 1:11 longer than yesterday 

*Bay Water Temperature = 32ºF at Thomas Pt. Light House. 

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High Temperatures Today

Not as warm as yesterday, but we get back to the mid 40s. Notice the colder air on Delmarva with the influence of deeper snow pack.


Storm Set Up:

Jet Stream Friday

The warm ridge we will experience this week will move out by Friday, allowing the return flow from the southwest to pump in warmer air. A storm moving through Tennessee to our west will help to bring in the warm air and rain for us.


Rai will move in Thursday evening. We should see a break during Friday to enjoy the warm winds, then a second surge of rain Friday night and Saturday. Colder air will follow, which will bring some accumulating snow back to the ski areas between West Virginia, western Maryland, and western PA.


Rainfall Potential


Temperature Outlook

Despite the ice, there is little snow left over in central Maryland and PA. That will allow the warm up to take hold better than I earlier thought. Look closely and you will see that is 65ºF on Friday. That will come with some rain and gusty winds… but I think we get many dry hours in between.


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Also See:

My Winter Outlook 2017-2018 for more snow

Maryland Winters

La Nina Formed: What it could mean to our winter

NOAA Winter Outlook: Not The Best But Not The Worst For Snow

Two Farmers Almanacs Winter 2018 Outlooks

Winter Weather Folkore: Suggestions from Animals and Crops

First Frost and Freeze Dates For Maryland (southern PA and northern VA)

My Preliminary Winter Outlook Notes

Low Snow Winters In Baltimore: To Repeat Or Not Repeat

NOAA Ranks Blizzard 2016 4th Worst Snowstorm On Record

Blizzard 2016 Record Top Snowstorm: Area Totals

Extreme Weather of 2015 balanced out on both ends