Monday January 8

The Winter Weather Advisory in place today is for an icy mix. The arrival may bring snow and sleet, but most of this event will have freezing rain. There is warm air aloft that will drop rain, but our ground is frozen solid. There is nothing easy about this forecast and I do not think computer models are able to handle this well due to how cold the ground is and the extent of ice on the Chesapeake Bay.

My one caution is that I have seen situations like this when temps may even warm a little above freezing in spots, but the ground is so cold, that rain freezes on contact. At least we will have a thaw for the rest of this week.

Arrival Time

The radar simulation is posted below.

Timing of this evening brings the precipitation in late morning on the north/west side, and early afternoon in metro areas. Even if this starts with the benefit of salt still on the roads and daytime solar heating, once the sun gets low we will have an icing problem. That time frame is 4 PM and beyond. Schools have a tough call about dismissal, but evening activities are likely to be postponed for many.

Stats For January 7

Normal High: 41ºF

Record High: 70ºF in 2008

Normal Low: 24ºF

*Former Record Low: 4ºF in 1970

Snow Record: 6.7″ in 1996

Seasonal Snow To Date (at BWI): 5.2″

Sunrise: 7:26 AM

Sunset 5:01 PM

*Daylight = 1:03 longer than yesterday

*Bay Water Temperature = 31ºF at Thomas Pt. Light House. Since the water is brackish, salt content allows it to stay liquid and measure below 32ºF. It is the freshwater at the surface that freezes.

Morning Temperatures

These numbers have helped to reinforce the frozen ground

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High Temperatures: Where Will The Ice Hold?

The purple area shows where the modeling may have trouble warming up too fast. Frozen ground and icy water on the Bay should allow colder temps to hold longer.

Note: Even if there are wet roads, they are like to ice up when the light gets low after 4PM

—-> slider: Simulated Radar

This model is having trouble identifying precipitation. The onset may have some snow and more likely sleet. Then freezing rain. I have annotated the Freezing Line in yellow. This is how the model sees it, but frozen ground and waterways may allow the cold to hold longer and farther south.

[metaslider id=56780]

Temperature Outlook

Next Storm

Likely we get rain, but the modeling error does push storms a little father east. I will watch for any adjustment of track here that might impact our inland areas.

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