Storm Tuesday Morning Marginal Severe Risk Then Colder Wednesday

Monday October 23

The storm in Kentucky and the strong cold front draped into Georgia today will be moving east and could bring some showers this evening. There will be some severe storms along it, but weak to our south today, getting as close as Southern Virginia. The best chance of rain locally will be overnight peaking with the cold front early Tuesday morning. The timing sets up around 5 AM for metro Baltimore to get a pulse of rain and wind with some thunder possible. The chance of storms turning severe for our region will be marginal as the timing will arrive at the typically coolest part of the day. But we still have a strong cold front that will usher in a change in our weather pattern. The really cold air will be lagging 12 to 18 hours behind, but definitely in place Wednesday morning.

Here is a quick look at the break down:

In GEEK TERMS the lift is weak ahead of the front. So the dynamics do not support severe weather, which is why you will see below the split of the marginal and slight risk (a little better chance) to our south today and east Tuesday. But with a southeast wind off of the Bay feeding into the front, that boosts the chance of any system we get, in any season. So the most likely thing most of us get will be some rumbles of thunder between 4 and 6 AM Tuesday. However, whatever swings through will be brief on the order of less than half an hour.

Animation: Radar Simulation

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