5 AM Sunday September 10
The warm water north of Cuba has allowed Hurricane Irma to restrengthen overnight. The 100 mph wind field is entering Key West now along with a 2 Ft storm surge already. Tornado Warnings being issued across south Florida and that will expand north through the entire state over the next 24 hours. The eye wall replacement cycle is taking place and winds have increased to 130 mph. The eye may contract and speed up a little more as it continues to the northwest at 8 mph. Landfall is expected between Key West and Marathon Key close to 8 AM.
- 80 miles – Hurricane Force Wind Field
- 220 mile – Tropical Storm Force Wind Field
The slow forward movement and up tick in intensity will lead to maximum impact on southwest Florida. The slower speed has also allowed it to make a smoother turn and the trend keeps is just west of the Florida mainland. The edge of the eye way may be on or just offshore, but the core over water will allow Irma to maintain intensity longer. There is no way to sugar coat this… This is the worst case scenario for all of west Florida.
Note: Tina Fling informed me that her son is one of those meteorologists bunkered in the Key West NWS Office. She will share any direct updates from him during the day.
7 hours shows the wobbling and reorganizing of the eye as the storm moves away from Cuba and towards Florida
5 AM Stats
ABOUT 40 MI…65 KM SSE OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
ABOUT 140 MI…225 KM S OF NAPLES FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…130 MPH…215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…928 MB…27.41 INCHES
Hurricane Warning And Track
Notice the shift to the west of the coast. This may allow the intensity to hold strength while the strongest part of the eye wall hits land. This could be the worst set up for the Keys to Naples. The forecast here shows between Cat 4 and Cat 3.
Remember this storm has a wave memory or momentum of a prior 185 mph wind storm. The storm surge will be the top of the potential.
See the list of warnings and watches below
Reminder: Storm Structure
Track Farther North- Just off the west coast
Storm Surge Max to 10 15 Ft
Add in 30+ Ft waves on top and the water level along the coast could reach 45 Ft above normal. That would cover, damage, and likely wipe out structures 3 to 4 stories tall!
Worst Impact Area
Farther North Up The Coast
Warnings and Watches
Almost the entire state is under the risk of Hurricane Force Winds and Tornados. Tropical Storm Watch through Atlanta, GA for Monday!
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for…
* South Santee River southward to Jupiter Inlet
* North Miami Beach southward around the Florida peninsula to the
* Florida Keys
* Tampa Bay
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
* Fernandina Beach southward around the Florida peninsula to Indian
* Florida Keys
* Lake Okeechobee
* Florida Bay
* Cuban provinces of Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus, Villa Clara,
Matanzas, and La Habana
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…
* North of Fernandina Beach to Edisto Beach
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* West of Indian Pass to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line
* North of Fernandina Beach to South Santee River
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* Bimini and Grand Bahama
Arrival time of Tropical Storm Force Winds
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