March 8 2017 – It is going to snow! I felt like I need to state that because we are tied for the lowest seasonal winter snowfall in Baltimore, it is still in the 60s, and it is March…. So this might be hard to believe. But it really will snow as the pattern will change to the most weather action we have had all winter. FITF  The two questions that follow is how much and will it stick?  Well, lets start with the first event that has the most confidence… Friday. I know this winter seems like the fisherman in the Geico Commercial. But we really have a few more chances that will follow.

Friday Snow

This first snow will be the mark of the arctic air moving into our region. That work arctic is important as I’ve pointed out over the past few days the jet stream changing thanks to a storm near the Arctic Circle in northern Canada. The first wave will bring snow but I personally think the ground and marginal air temps will be too warm for much to stick. School should be on time.  But Pennsylvania will get more stickage…

—> slider GFS Model

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Snowfall Maps


Can we get 1 inch of snow? Sure! But stickage will be a problem, especially after 10 AM when the sun angle is higher.




Notice the State College NWS Office has less snow in southern PA along the boarder than the Sterling NWS Office has.

Behind this storm will be an arctic air mass we would normally see in January. The forecast low temps area reflection of how far south it can penetrate, especially with little snowpack to our north.


Sunday Storm Staying South?

This will be one benchmark to focus on before the Sunday storm. It is the depth of this air mass that is the reason that storm has been projected to be suppressed. I still think the modeling error has this too strong… so the Southern storm track should verify farther north and still close enough to pay attention to. This is the same model that had a direct hit for us a few days ago… I will keep pointing out the northern edge for any shift back.

What may follow is what the jet stream showed last night… and what the Canadian Model showed two days ago. I showed it in this prior post and brushed it aside as the outlier. It may have led the charge since the GFS and European Models are in agreement on a coastal storm Tuesday. This phases the northern and southern branches of the jet stream with the tender transition zone over Maryland. This is always delicate as that bubble can also be a dry slot if the timing is off.

Coastal Next Week?

—> slider GFS Model

I have to show that… but also add the disclaimer that the models have been that Geico Fisherman all winter. Why would it be any different now? Well, if we truly get this northern branch of the jet stream to take over, that would be better for the modeling. This winter has a strong Pacific Jet and that has been the trouble. So different pattern would be a good thing…

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If this is the case and the northern branch of the jet takes over, then there is more credence to it holding firm and bringing in yet another potential clipper type system to follow.




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In a few weeks my friend Lexi Hack and I  will be bringing back these shirts and the fundraiser for Save a Limb Fund at Sinai Hospital. Also stay tuned for my new Storm Smart Assembly program. A STEM based assembly on severe weather for elementary and middle schools.