February 8 – Temperatures are in the 60s but the storm tonight will start as rain and turn to heavy snow. The intensity will impact travel Thursday morning, but the debate over stickage is still ongoing. As of now, the National Weather Service has converted the northern Maryland Counties north and west of Baltimore to a Winter Weather Advisory. This is for an expected general 2 to 4 inches of snow and matches my initial forecast map from last night. That is posted below.  The pink shaded counties including Cecil Co and southern  Pennsylvania are for a Winter Storm Warning. This is for an expected 5 to 8 inches of snow. Note the Advisories and Warnings represent more confident as the event approaches.

Storm Snap Shot at 3 AM

This will be starting as rain and then turning to snow. It will transition from northwest to south early in the morning. The time frame for our region will be between 2 and 5 AM, with metro Baltimore changing over to snow closer to 5 AM through the morning commute.

 

Metro Baltimore is still in question.

It will snow! But how much will be wasted on melting to cool down the ground, versus sticking and accumulating. See the reasons in my prior report. There is a new special statement that NWS can issue when weather conditions can impact a commute. I suspect they may implement that tomorrow morning even if snow expectations don’t amount to advisory criteria. The county split follows the climatologically favored cooler areas inland from the Bay and northwest of I-95.

 

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How Much Snow?

Muy Firat Call Map

I will update this in the evening

 

NWS Zone Maps

 

 

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I will have the latest model snow forecast maps as well as any other updates in my next repot mid afternoon.

 

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