Storm Energy To The Coast: Snow Mixes In North Tonight

Monday January 23 – We are still under a Wind Advisory and there will be some bands of heavy rain this afternoon. Baltimore’s BWI had a top gust of 43 mph so far. Imagine the open elevated bridges might have very well been higher. The purpose of this post is to add some support to how this storm redeveloping on the coast will help create its own cold air. This morning I mentioned some snow might mix overnight, but now it looks like there could be a bit more. Before we get too excited, I have already alerted my clients to let them know that even in the coldest spots, the ground is warm and will have trouble supporting stickage, even through Tuesday morning. But some coating on the grass north and west of Baltimore is possible. Here is the set up, with the radar simulation below…

Coastal Storm

The main area of Low Pressure is now transferring the energy to the coast. This will help support the northeast to north wind that will hold the chilly air in place and bring in colder air tonight.

Also See: Record Snow Totals From 2016 Blizzard

Winds:

We are in the peak of this pressure gradient mid day… the winds will ease a little this evening, but the main issue will be the shift in direction… turning more to the north and northwest tonight. That will help the colder air feed into the storm. Especially at cloud level.

Precipitation Evolution —> slider HRRR Model Radar Simulation

Or Revolution From Rain To Snow North and West of Baltimore

[metaslider id=42894]

Temperatures:

Notice that even with snow falling, there is not much in the way of freezing air at the surface. Moderate snow could briefly cause the local temperatures to drop, but really cold air is hard to find.

How Much Snow?

This is a ‘best case’ scenario for snow lovers. While you may have seen higher amounts on some models if you have access to an account or other blogs, but that does not account for melting vs stickage… Plus, the NAM model often overdoes precipitation. It is a convective feedback bias of the formulas and algorithms it uses.

Winter is trying to fight back, and there is plenty to watch this evening. There will be plenty more to talk about this week as well. I will be back with an update later…

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