Will There Be Ice Tuesday Morning?

Monday Jan 9 – This quick update is about a small band of precipitation that will try to arrive with a mid level warm front (at cloud level). The timing of this piece of energy will be in the morning, after sunrise. The surface temperatures will still be well below freezing. But, warming will be taking place at cloud level that could allow for some sleet or freezing drizzle. This will be the beginning of the warm up this week.

Typical this type of set up will cross the mountains and dry up east of Hagerstown. But there is enough support that ‘something’ might survive. If anything I would suggest the best chance would be along and north of I-70 to the PA line and into Pennsylvania. So, I figured I had to mention it. But I don’t want to scare you or over hope your hopes for a delay.

This band will be light and the timing will be after sunrise. But at this point, the potential error in track and timing should open the window for a 30% to 40% chance of something reaching central Maryland. I will be up early to give another update to help you plan should this turn into anything. Here is what my trusty High Resolution Rapid Refresh Model is showing.

Temperatures At Sunrise

—-> slider HRRR Model

Notice how the moisture falls apart east of Hagerstown…

[metaslider id=42301]

Temperatures at Noon

NAM/WRF

This model often overdoes precipitation. This depiction also is lacking the full winter mode. Needless to say, while I think it is overdone, we can’t ignore it.

By the Afternoon…

The main action will be riding west and north along the mountains as warmer air will be moving in ahead of the main storm

Next Update:

I will be up to check on the situation by 4:30 AM. Should this turn into ‘something’, I will make a post. First I must contact my clients, then I will aim to make an update via social media by 5 AM

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