Big Warm Up But Potential For Big Ice Too

Monday January 9 – This afternoon update on a cold day will be brief, but serves a few purposes. It was 25°F at 1 PM in Baltimore and may seen like a waste of cold air with warm rain in the way. There is potential ice on Tuesday, followed but a big time warm up into the 60s this week, with rain. Then, another winter event next weekend has the threat of more ice. It is too early to pin anything down. That is just how weather works with the chaos theory at its foundation. So there is not way to tell precisely what time it will start or how much ice you will get, if you get it at all. This is just an outlook to lay the foundation of what to watch this week. It will be a very volatile week with big changes, but what else would we expect. If out was easy to pin down, it would be boring.

Ice Tuesday?

There has been a lot of chatter about ice on Tuesday, but I think the cart got before the horse. Some TV forecasts had mentioned ice, and I think a lot of people ran with it. The main thing I have been seeing is ‘maybe’ north and west… but most of the central and southern Maryland/Delmarva areas would not be affected. I have been telling my clients the location should be mostly north, and the timing later in the day helps east impact on roads. Northern Carroll and Baltimore counties in Maryland and southern PA may have just a little bit. Here are the maps showing just that, and also the chance of rain just about every day this week… That will be the price tag off the warm up.

—> slider GFS Model

[metaslider id=42283]

Notes:

Rain: Yes, a chance just about each day, but not all day. There will be breaks in between as waves of Low Pressure ride along the arctic front and keep storms mainly to our west.
Warm Up: Temps will reach the lower 60s Thursday and Friday. This is on the warm side of the jet stream/storm track. This is common in the winter to have a big contrast in temperatures with a strong, active pattern. We will happen to be on the warm side, until the colder air tries to come back Friday

Ice Storm This Weekend?

As the jet stream drops south, the next wave of Low Pressure will run up against a blocking High Pressure centered in eastern Canada. That is a set up for overrunning. Which means warm air at cloud level, but cold air at the ground. The result = a potential ice event. A long duration event. But, I don’t want to call it a storm yet because:

5 Days away: The timing would be Saturday into Sunday. But the arrival and thaw is subject to fluctuate as this is tracked over the next few days.
Trend North: As I pointed out last weekend, the trend has been for systems to verify farther north than initially plotted on most models. I will be focusing on this all week. The blocking high does allow for a little more flexibility since the ice would be widespread. But let’s see how the trend goes with this for the next day or two.
How Much? It is was to early to call that and impact without knowing the exact timing and track. This is not your cliche “it’s great to be a weatherman and wrong all the time” thing. It is the fact that predicting a storm that has not yet formed is not perfect. But giving an idea it will happen and a region that could be impacted is my purpose with mid and long range outlooks.

—> slider GFS Model

[metaslider id=42291]

The warm up this week and the one to follow next week is nothing to get too worried about if you are a winter lover. This is a reflection of the active jet stream. While we end up on the warm side again, there will be a progression back to the east/south this month. There is plenty of winter ahead of us and we are already ahead of last winter for snow to date. Even though BWI has not had 1″ yet and is the lowest in the entire state.

Temperature Outlook

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