Heavy Rain Today Then Colder And First Snow For Many

Tuesday January 3 – Today will be a slow return back to a normal schedule for the new year. Wet roads and fog will give way to periods of heavy rain that appear to be focused right along the I-95 corridor. The first wave will arrive just after sunrise during the commute, and the second push will be around lunchtime. Totals could push one inch or more or needed rain as we still have a deficit since December 1 of about 1/3 inch, and for last year… The rain will settle down this evening. Behind this storm, colder air will spill in and energy in the jet stream will help light snow develop Thursday night into Friday. This could bring the first dusting to one inch for many… with a second storm to follow on Saturday. Both ‘appear’ to have the focus south and east of Baltimore, which includes Delmarva/Ocean City, and southeast Virginia. See the maps, my thoughts, and notes below.

Radar Simulation: —> slider HRRR Model

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High Temperatures (well above freezing)

Tracking the next two events

I want to point out the last two recent Freezing Rain Advisories issued for northern Maryland had which did not materialize. The trend has been to push systems farther north, which is why I think this weekend event is still in play. This is NOT my wish casting, but rather a modeling error with a Pacific dominated jet stream. I do not want to put much weight in the specifics today since there are still many variables. Each model run looks so different… The temperature outlook reflects the models that keep the storm farther south, making us colder. So the precise track of the jet stream is still left to be determined, and why the impact for us is still uncertain.

—-> slider

The Canadian Model has been most consistent and reliable this winter, which is why I am showing it here. Note the light snow, but darker blue shows moderate snow for both events on the Delmarva

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GFS Model

This model has a track farther south, but the error to the north should be considered.

Friday Morning

Saturday Evening

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Temperature Outlook

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