Friday December 30 – I know this will sound like you’ve heard it before, but this time the pattern does appear to be changing. Today we have an upper level disturbance that will help bring some flurries and shower showers across the mountains into southern PA and parts of centra Maryland. So some flakes will fly and one band was already moving through central Maryland by 8 AM and dropping south across Frederick and Carroll Counties…. heading across I-70.  More will be on the way. But warm air will arrive with the next storm. The timing appears to be on track with our last few events to start before dawn and possibly have some ice as the first work week of the New Year begins. The GFS model below shows a hint of cold air damming, but I would suggest this once again will possibly impact the northern suburbs of Baltimore Monday morning.  Beyond that, the cold air will return, but we are watching a storm in the Pacific Ocean that will bring in our chance for snow next week. It is way too early to point this down… See more below.

Show Showers- Upper Level Energy —> slider

Vorticity at Jet Stream Level (500 mb/18,000 Ft) shows the support for bringing snow showers across the mountains. The timing of this will be with the peak instability of the day, so look for 9 PM to 3 PM for the flurries and snow showers.

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Just a Snapshot

This is only a time stamp from the GFS Model… So not a precise radar or display of where all the flurries may reach. Just an example of the stretch of snow bands crossing the mountains… This one reaching Washington DC

Quiet Weekend For New Year Celebrations….


The Next Storm will arrive Monday. Here we see the arrival Wirth some ice on the GFS Model based on the cold air damming. I believe the pattern will repeat, meaning the air will be cold enough for an onset of ice farther south… perhaps near the Maryland/PA line. Eventually the warmer air will win and this will be a mainly rain event

Storm Track —> slider

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Next Storm- So Far Away….

The chatter about a storm next week has some justification, but the timing and specifics can not be pinned down. The energy is still located near Hawaii and will race in on a strong Pacific Jet Stream. But this is ‘out of the grid’, so there is less data to rely on. Thus, the timing of the arrive keeps changing. At first glance, this was a weekend event (next weekend), but now looks like a Thursday/Friday thing.

I expect the timing, and the track to change, so I don’t want to get into too much. However, the jet stream will be to our south meaning we will be on the colder side. So FITF. The chance of snow looks promising.

Here is the difference in timing just between the GFS and Canadian Models



Temperature Outlook


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Also See:

My Winter Outlook for 2016-2017: Colder with snow spread out more

Maryland Winters

NOAA Winter Outlook for 2016 to 2017

La Nina Formed: What it could mean to our winter

Farmers Almanacs Split On Cold And Snow

Extreme Weather of 2015 balanced out on both ends

Low Snow Winters In Baltimore: Records Might Surprise You

NOAA Ranks Blizzard 2016 4th Worst Snowstorm On Record

Blizzard 2016 Record Top Snowstorm: Area Totals