Big Time Thaw Tonight With More Rain Then Refreeze

Saturday Evening December 17 – The ice storm we had this morning has left its mark. More than the fatal accidents and frustrating traffic, but ice still on untreated roads. The temperatures will be rising overnight, so there is no worry of a freeze. But warmer, moist air over the icy ground may produce some thick fog until the winds mix up the air. This storm passing to our north is helping the active jet stream to shift into overdrive aloft. Winds around 5,000 Ft above the ground will over 74 mph by morning. That is hurricane speed and will be the force that pushes this arctic air out, boosting temperatures at least twenty degrees warming by Sunday morning. By Sunday night we drop below freezing again and into the 20s by Monday morning.

The GFS Model shows temperatures in the mid 50s to 60s across our region Sunday morning. The same system is responsible for temperatures crashing back to near and below zero in Michigan. That cold air will race our way behind the storm by Sunday night. In between, a few waves of rain. The first wil arrive after midnight and help break up the ice tonight. The second surge of rain will make for a sloppy day at the Ravens game.

One thing to note before showing the models. If you have been following my posts, then you should note the Canadian Model performed much better than the American GFS with arrival of the precipitation and the duration of the ice. That is important as both models split whether we get snow or not to end this thing Sunday.

Quick Look At The Thaw

Notice the 8 PM, Midnight, and 8 AM Sunday temperatures

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Rain- Radar Simulation: HRRR Model —> slider

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Ravens Game Rain

The warm air will come with a price. Strong winds and moderate to heavy rain at times during the afternoon. Especially as the cold front passes, during the second half of the football game.

Back End Snow Or No?

The GFS Model tries to give southern PA and central Maryland a few hours of snow or flurries as the cold air pours in. If this is correct, that could begin at the end of the Ravens game. But the Canadian Model below shows just a cut off of the rain as the colder air arrive. This will help show is the Canadian continues to be the stronger model.

Canadian GEM Model

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