Tuesday October 4 – We have a cool start with areas of fog and high temperatures expected in the 60s. That does not sound tropical, but it is having an impact on the major hurricane to our south. The air mass in place will help steer the storm closer to the southeast US coast, which means some impact, if not direct, can be expected in our region. But the expected track to hug the coast or make landfall has prompted the Governors of Florida and South Carolina to declare a State of Emergency to help with preparation. This morning Hurricane Matthew has 145 mph winds and is hitting Haiti hardest. Here is the latest and quick look at the forecast tracks:
5 AM Tuesday October 4
- Winds: 145 mph
- *Hurricane Force Winds Extend 40 miles from center
- Moving North at 9 mph
- Rainfall forecast in Haiti: 15 to 40 inches
- Storm Surge: Up to 11 Feet
Forecast Tracks
The trend has shifted west, but that is still subject to change based on the speed of Matthew and timing with the next large Mid Latitude air mass.
National Hurricane Center Forecast Map
GFS Model
European Model
Notice the landfall, but then jump out into the Atlantic
Computer Model Spaghetti Plot
There is a large consensus for Matthew to track just east of Ocean City. Please note that even if that was the cast, the strongest winds would be out over the ocean. Tropical Storm winds and heavy rain can reach deep into Maryland and Pennsylvania based on the interaction with any approaching cold fronts.
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