Sunday October 2 – Major Hurricane Matthew is still churning in the Caribbean and has made the turn to the north As of 5 PM Sunday, top winds are 145 mph making this a Category 4. Hurricane Warnings are in effect for Jamaica, Haiti, and eastern Cuba. Storm Surge may be as much as 11 Feet in eastern Cuba, while general rainfall will range from 8 to 15 inches in the Bahamas, but a more intense 20 to 40 inches in parts of eastern Cuba. This is a compact, but powerful storm that won’t really reach the US until later in the week, and even then, still not certain.
The main issues with this storm are speed and the interaction with mid latitude weather systems. As of now, there is expected to be a blocking High that may steer Mathew towards the South Carolina Coast, but the timing will determine if it will make it to the coast or stay offshore. If Matthew is faster, it could reach the mainland US being forced by the blocking. But if it maintains a slower course, it will be allowed to curve back out to the Atlantic by next weekend.
Here is a look at the wide range of model projections. Please note that these are just possibilities, not promises.
GFS Model –> slider
European Model Projection
This allows Matthew to clip North and South Carolina, but the High Pressure in Canada will push it off of the coast.
Spaghetti Model Plots
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