Saturday October 9 – There has been explosive development in the Caribbean over the past two days. The warm water and calm winds aloft allowed it to drop 44 mb and increase winds 80 mph in 24 hours. Only two other storms have done that…. As of last night it briefly reached Category 5 according to the National Hurricane Center, with winds of 160 mph, but this morning a sturdy Category 4 with 155 mph winds. It is a small storm rather far south, so when it takes the turn to the north, it will pas through Jamaica and eastern Cuba… putting southern Florida in the potential path. But a lot can happen to steer this over the next 5 days and beyond up the coast. More below.
Our Rain Today- NOT From Matthew
We still have an upper level system that is stubborn to depart. So another band of rain will pivot across our area and last most of the day. Here is a look at the radar simulation:
Back to Hurricane Matthew
As powerful as this storm is, the impact on the US will likely be more direction from south Florida to North Carolina as it will tend to follow the coastline. That means by the time it gets this far north, it will be turning out into the Atlantic, away from the coast. Wind and rain are still likely to scrap Delmarva and perhaps inland, but it would take a strong blocking system to hold it closer to us, and that does not seem likely at this time.
National Hurricane Center Track
GFS Model Forecast –> slider
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Computer Model Spaghetti Plots
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