May 21 2016 – The rain is here this morning, as expected. It has made for a soaker for some running events and the start of Preakness Day in Baltimore. But this also raises the issues that 100% chance of rain does not always mean 100% of the day. There is a storm passing to our south, and as it moves off the coast will keep us in a chilly northeast wind gusting to 20 mph. But the steadiest rain should break up after this morning. Below are two model simulations showing the best and worst case scenario for the afternoon rain. If the kids are crazy from being stuck inside and the full moon, hang in there… We are still in for a big time warm up this week and it should feel like summer for Memorial Day Weekend.
Radar Simulation —> sliders
Best Case Scenario: HRRR Model
Rain beaks up with a dry pocket over central Maryland during the afternoon. But a few isolated showers possible with steady rain remaining in the mountains.
Worse Case Scenario: NAM/WRF Model
Showers more widespread and last all day
[metaslider id=37131]
Temperatures
If the rain lingers, then highs will range from the upper 50s to near 60°F. But if the rain breaks up as the HRRR suggest, then we could reach the mid 60s.
Outlook: Much Warmer
We should reach the 80s by Wednesday as the heat stream allows for the flow of warm air to surge north. This will take us into Memorial Day Weekend.
Please share your thoughts, best weather pics/video, or just keep in touch via social media
- Facebook: Justin Berk, Meteorologist
- Twitter: @JustinWeather
- Instagram: justinweather
Get the award winning Kid Weather App I made with my oldest son and support our love for science, weather, and technology. Our 3 year anniversary of the release and our contribution to STEM education is this November. It has been downloaded in 60 countries, and works in both temperature scales. With your support we can expand on the fun introduction to science and real weather.
Faith in the Flowers- For Save A Limb Fund
Help me support 16 year old Lexi Hack’s fundraiser to give back to the program that is helping fix her legs. These shirts (baseball T comes with red or black sleeves) and eco-friendly Tote Bag come with a bracelet to help raise money for Save A Limb Fund.
