Friday March 18 – There will be snow this weekend across much of our area, but on the cusp of Spring arriving this is not a pure event. There are a few ingredients on the map this morning that will come together for a moderate to strong coastal storm. I am leaning towards a Saturday start, but this will last through Sunday as well. It will be a stronger event for New England but we will get our fair share and stress trying to calculated who will see snow falling and what will actually lay and stay on the ground.
Forgive me for repeating some of my points, but I feel it is important as the forecast looks ominous, yet the traveling will not be the same as you might expect in mid Winter. Today for example starts near 50°F and will reach close to 60°F this afternoon. The ground is warm, especially on the heels of some 70 and 80 degree days. The Chesapeake Bay has also warmed a bit, so the chips are stacked against stickage. The mountains will see the benefit of colder air and some ski areas could get good coverage. Here is the latest GFS Model, the solution I am leaning towards. My notes and first call snowfall map is below.
*Spring begins at 12:30 AM EDT Sunday March 20
Storm Track (—> Slider)
Notes:
- Start Time: Saturday Afternoon-Evening
- May begin more as a mix or even rain, especially near Baltimore.
- Rain more likely near Rt 50/south and east.
- More snow in the evening and overnight- The best chance for accumulation. Road stickage will take more hours so many flakes will be wasted to melting.
- Slushy Roads? The best chance will be the colder north/west suburbs. This will be an elevation event with a better chance over 600 Ft above sea level.
- *Please remember that we had snow two weeks ago on March 4. Temps were below freezing and snow fell overnight, but most roads remained wet.
- Snow or Mix will continue on Sunday, but road travel should be OK during the day hours.
My First Call For Snowfall
- This depends on the timing with the bulk falling overnight. Most roads will remain wet.
- Typical ‘North and West’ favoritism for more likely snow and accumulation.
You can still show off your preference for snow all year: FITF Shirts And Snow Sticks
Temperatures:
If you noticed the frizzling line will get close to Baltimore overnight Saturday, but the day temperatures remain above freezing. This limits what can stick, but also will be limited. Cold air will linger with a chance of flurries or snow showers on Monday. Then a quick warm up during the week. At this point, Easter weekend looks mild.
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