Tuesday March 2 – We had rain overnight that is already moving away. Strong winds and colder air today has already opened up the Lake Effect snow inland. This will set up the cold air blocking pattern to help the next system produce snow, but now we get to the question about what will stick. This is not a standard snow plot. While the arrival Thursday night will help stickage, the marginal temperatures and snow falling during the day Friday will not all pile up. There will be snowflakes wasted to melting and cooling down the ground. Please see the model maps below and note that the ‘potential snow’ is not what will lay and stay. My first call map below is my first call including what I feel most confident showing now. The event is still about two days away.
Storm Pattern:
One storm moving out to the north, two part transition event Thursday-Friday, then a clipper with flurries this weekend.
Main Event: Thursday Night-Friday
GFS Model (–> slider)
This is the most aggressive now with the storm. The snow that moves in overnight is what will be the focus for an impact inland by Friday morning. Notice the heavy snow during the day Friday. But temperatures and daylight with a March sun angle will not allow for all to lay and stay.
Temperatures Friday Morning will be below freezing west and north of I-95. But between Baltimore-Annapolis-Washington it will be above freezing. To get stickage, the snowfall rate needs to be heavy and even then the streets might remain wet.
Friday Afternoon
Classic elevation snow. The best chance for more stickage will be west and north Baltimore in the typical colder spots. Roads will be wet mid day with stickage on grassy and shaded areas. The cities, I-95, and Eastern Shore may still have snow, but it will not stick during the day.
Snowfall? This is NOT my forecast.
The GFS showing the potential, but not what will lay and stay
Canadian Model (–> slider)
This model is now farther south and weaker with the storm…
[metaslider id=35047]Temperatures:
Daybreak spots below freezing are the best chance to have stickage and impact. Expect wet roads during the day.
Snowfall? This is NOT my forecast
This is a little more realistic, but reflects a less impressive storm
My First Call For Snowfall
Contrary to my normal first call, I am giving a range. There is too much variability and should it be cold enough or burst more before sunrise, then the potential increases a lot. Please note that the biggest impact will be at daybreak. After 8 or 9 AM, the higher sun angle will make most roads wet. It may snow throughout the day and not stick in many places.
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Temperature Outlook
It will be colder this weekend, but spring seems to surge in next week. We have the potential to end up between 65°F and 70°F
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