Compare Friday Snowfall Potential From NWS And Models

Compare Friday Snowfall Potential From NWS And Models

Screen Shot2016-03-02 16_30_42Wednesday afternoon update: It is going to snow Thursday night and Friday! At this point that is ‘close’ to a sure thing. This latest look at the GFS Model shows a very strong coastal storm off of the east cost on Friday afternoon. As impressive as this looks, it is the most aggressive model, but also shows the storm pulling away. The other thing I highlighted was the freezing line north of Baltimore. That is important because temperatures will be above freezing for central Maryland and I-95 metro areas during the day. So much of the snowfall will be wasted to melting.

The  temperature is important because it will be borderline with freezing when the snow arrives overnight. That line will be close to I-95, so the worst conditions (should they exist) will be at daybreak on Friday. If anything, this should be an easy call for schools in the set up that what you see is what you get before sunrise. So when they need to decide by 5 AM, that will likely be the conditions through the morning commute.  I don’t want to be the decision maker since Baltimore County for example already has a half day scheduled. So it might take more adjusting.

If you want stickage and accumulation, most of it will have to occur before 9 AM. Then it will compete with the higher sun angle and warming temps. This is March, not January! The Chesapeake Bay temperatures have climbed to 41°F at Thomas Point. There is no ice in the northern part of the Bay. So any hint of the wind from the east and it will warm up local areas easily.

Here is a quick view to compare the local National Weather Service Office forecast maps to a few computer models. My First Call For Snowfall that I posted earlier today is close in line. The main difference is that the models shifted the storm south, so my PA suggested totals may have to be shaved back.  The southern end I still contend will fight the warmer ground and air, so not all the falls will lay and stay.

National Weather Service Zone Forecasts (MD/PA/DE)

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Check Out The Full Collection Of FITF Shirts And Snow Sticks


Computer Model Projections

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Compare to my first call for snowfall. Click on the map for the full report. I will have an update this evening.



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