Sunday February 21 8:30 AM- It will rain today. I could just stop there and show you the radar simulation, but the significance goes back to what I referred to a few days ago. This looks like another victory for the Canadian Model over the GFS Model. At that time I said rain today would mean the next storm this model had shown would bring some snow or sleet at the start of the next event.  I need to retract that. While there are two different storm tracks still being shown, they both bring rain, and a lot of it! In fact over 2 inches of rain will lead to more local flooding.  The only difference will be how warm or cold we get mid week. But by next weekend, it will be cold again with another chance for snow.

Note: Saturday Feb 20 brought a high temperature of 67°F to BWI. That was 21 degrees above average and the warmest since December 27th when the high was 69°F.

Rain Timeline: Radar Simulation

Temperatures will still be mild, in the 50s to bear 60°F

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Mid Week Storm:

Tuesday: Rain showers

Wednesday: Rain arrives from the south.

Thursday: Heavy rain, perhaps some thunder.

The warmer GFS track shows the rain moving in with a large storm well to our west. This brings in very warm air ahead of with, with plenty of tropical moisture from the Gulf of Mexico and a chance to boost that 2 inch rain mark.

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The colder Canadian track still shows rain. Even if there was a hint of snow at the start, the important morning drive time looks just wet for us, so perhaps we get through an entire week without an impact on schools.

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Flooding Potential!


Next Weekend: Winter Returns

Even though I am leaning towards the Canadian track, the GFS Model is the one with a stronger clipper next weekend. Here we see a chance of light snow Saturday evening into Sunday morning. This is a quick snapshot as I still see a lot of adjustment based on how the mid week storm behaves. But I wanted you to keep your Faith in the Flakes.

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Temperature Outlook

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