January 25 – I work up this morning with a temperature of 5°F on my home thermometer. As expected, it as colder than expected with a mostly clear sky and deep snow pack. Temperatures trend colder after a big snowstorm as computer models can’t keep up. For today and tomorrow, plan for a thaw- refreeze cycle. So what melts, will ice up in the evening again. That is where you will need to drop salt.
The spread of forecast temps to validation not only messes with forecasted highs and low, but could mess with the upcoming forecast. The slight variation with colder air can influence the speed and movement of developing systems. The next result, that storm rumor you may have heard about is trending the way I mentioning Sunday night.. off the coast. Let’s just look at the maps to tell the story…
Actual temperatures this morning at 7 AM
- BWI was down to 9°F
- York PA reached -2°F
Forecast from HRRR Model at 7 AM
Some places did get a think layer of clouds to redirect some heat back down and warmed up prior to sunrise.
Forecast From HRRR Model at 4 PM
Temps should get close to freezing in the sunshine, but facing the sun will make the ground even warmer.
Light rain/snow Tuesday night into Wednesday morning… It looks light and I will skip this for now… just to show you the storm that will try to form on that front slipping south.
GFS Model
The best performer in the past few weeks.
Canadian Model
Faster and farther east
European Model
This was the one that showed the best chance of snow along the coast. It is a little farther east now.
Notes:
At this point, it does not look like we will have a repeat storm. In fact, we might end up with little to nothing. The GFS has backed west a little, but the European has moved east… both showing just a clipping of light snow for Delmarva Thursday night/Friday. I will continue to look for any sublet changes. Yes, an increase in speed of the southern branch energy could make this more of a hit, but I would not worry about that now.
FITF
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Also see:
Blizzard 2016 Seen By NASA Satellite From Space
Heavy Snow With Strong El Nino And Orioles World Series
Blizzard 2016 Record Top Snowstorm: Area Totals
Eye Of The Blizzard: Peak Of Storm And When It Ends
My Winter Outlook 2015-2016: Backload Snow And Ice
Farmers Almanacs Winter Outlooks Favor Snow
Winter Outlook 2016 from NOAA and CPC video
Strong El Nino Brings All Or Nothing Snow in Winter
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