New Year means a new weather pattern we can focus on. We are a month deep into winter, but with five record high temperatures and only a trace of snow this December, it seems like it hasn’t even started. This last system of the year passing through with rain showers will allow the jet stream to bring in back the cold air for 2016. There are also signs that El Nino is losing ground even though it is still a force to recon with, but I will elaborate on that in another report. First will be just getting to ‘normal’, then pulses of arctic air with a few days below average in the first week of January. Consider that on this December 30, Baltimore averages a high of 42°F and a low of 25°F. That sounds so foreign these days but will arrive with the new calendar year of 2016. With that, there will be some chances of at least snow showers reaching central Maryland. So this is not about any particular storms, but at least a signal that winter will finally arrive. Check it out and here is hope if you have Faith-in-the-Flakes*
Rain Track Brings Cold Air Back
New Year means a new weather pattern. New Year’s Eve weather will be rather uneventful. Just breezy and cooler as temperatures return closer to average. Snow showers will be welcome in the western Maryland mountains and through the Great Lakes. High temps in early January centered around Baltimore will be in the 40s, with two days in the 30s during the first week. That arctic air will come with some upper level energy that will provide the chance of snow showers. Here is a look at the jet stream vorticity showing that energy aloft at around 18,000 ft above the ground.
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Coastal Storm Or Clipper?
The GFS Model is showing a coastal storm at the end of next week, with central Maryland on the western edge. I do not like to show details of a storm this far away, but rather the upper level energy. Also, in this El Nino year there is a likelihood for systems to end up farther east that first thought. What I am interested in is the upper level energy that will follow that looks like a clipper type system. Here’s a quick view.
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New Year -New North Atlantic Oscillation
This is a pattern of pressure in the North Atlantic that can determine warm or cold patterns for the eastern US. We have a tendency to look for just positive (warm) or negative (cold) values. Keeping it that simple, here is the look at the measurements since the start of September and the two week forecast. I’ve highlighted the highest positive values that corresponded to our warm surges. The computer model ensemble forecast trends negative in January breaking the stubborn pattern in the New Year.
New Year- New Temperature Outlook
Notice the arctic surge early next week. While there seems to be a warming trend to follow, there should be more of a fight for the cold air to come back with less opposition than it had over the past two months.
Faith In The Flakes: It Will Snow… Eventually
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