Contrary to my preference for snow, I have been embracing the warm up on the way that could lead to a new record high temperature in Baltimore this weekend. It’s not that I want December to be warm, but rather that the overall El Nino infused pattern is undeniable and warm ups tend to be warmer and last a day or two longer than first expected. This is not the first time I am saying close to 70°F. I already suggested that short sleeves, and perhaps shorts as well will be comfortable to wear at the Ravens game on Sunday. In general 65°F to 70°F has been on the docket for a few days, but the magic number means two things. First, just like when gas prices dropped from$3.01 to $2.99, it was a psychological boost, but only 2 cents different. So upper 60s Vs. 70°F in December says a lot. Secondly, that one extra degree would set a new record for Baltimore at BWI:
Looking ahead to the weekend
- Sunday Dec 13: Average 46°F
- Record Dec 13: 69°F in 1889 (126 years ago)
There will be a large storm in the Midwest that will pump up the heat for us. That is a given! This system will have an outbreak of severe storms from the Gulf Coast north along the Mississippi River Valley. But how much will depend in part to how much sun we can get. Yes, even the low sun angle in December can help. Plus the intensity of the storms will also show the energy to push warm air north our way, well ahead of it. But the actual numbers on the models are creeping up, and getting close to the record high Sunday. Here is a look at the weather map, but below the actual model numbers showing a creep higher into the upper 60s. I expect this creep upwards will continue as we get closer to the event and climatology gets smoothed out of the equation and the weight of this event takes more of a foothold in the calculations:
Here is the GFS Model numerical output showing the surge to 69°F for Sunday (which would tie the record) and Monday at BWI. Note that Monday will be our storm day with more wind, rain, and possible thunder. But I’ll address that in my evening post.
Compare the GEFS Ensemble (collection of many models) forecast from this morning. the high of 66°F is 2 degrees warmer than the prior output. Below is the same model output from overnight that I posted in my morning report.
Prior Model from my morning post. showing 64°F on Sunday with my suggestion it would be warmer
Watching for the models to catch up, you will start to hear your local weather person (besides me) discussing the high temperatures and push 25 degrees above normal. But a warm December without snow is nothing new. It also does not mean a snowless winter. I will have more on that shortly as well.
Faith In The Flakes: It Will Snow… Eventually
See all of our shirt the designs here, hosted by local printing partner Ink Splash in Westminster. Order now to get in on the printing this week and delivery by Christmas.
Holiday Spirit Giveback: Faith in the Flakes Christmas Shirts
My boys and I are rocking our shirts from last year and believe we will see snow this month. It might be hard to imagine with this stretch of rain. We want to spread the joy in a new way. Among the new styles, we have holiday or Christmas colors, and waiting for ours to be printed. We thought it would be great if families would wear these together to open gifts under their trees. In appreciation for your support, we will be using 20% of the proceeds of these holiday shirts to purchase winter coats for kids and donating them before Christmas. The collections from this design will be added up through Dec 21 (official start of winter).
We know Hanukah is this weekend, and there are other holidays you may celebrate. This is the most universal.
Will you join our family with your family?
Also see: My Winter Outlook 2015-2016
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Get the award winning Kid Weather App I made with my oldest son and support our love for science, weather, and technology. Our 3 year anniversary of the release and our contribution to STEM education is this November. It has been downloaded in 60 countries, and works in both temperature scales. With your support we can expand on the fun introduction to science and real weather.
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