It’s mid November and we have two days of an enhanced risk of severe storms in the southern US. This outlook courtesy of NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center. With a few sunny days with highs in the mid 60s in the Mid Atlantic, it does seem like there is more heat energy for this system to act on. As it moves to the east, the storm threat will weaken, but the upper level winds will be strong enough to carry a line of heavy rain and perhaps leftover thunderstorms our way Thursday morning. The good thing is that the cool time of the day will diminish the threat, but it will be noticeable.
Below is a slider tracking the height of the upper level wind energy passing through our region Thursday. Also, the warm temperatures will flip to below average as the jet stream is about to shift the pattern.
Notice this: 4 Year In A Row Below Average Tornadoes
The US is in a trend of low severe weather activity. Marking that is the comparison of tornadoes that have been below average for now four years in a row. This transcends La Nina and El Nino years. Autumn can bring a second surge of severe weather, any outbreaks are likely to keep the numbers in total on the low side.
Severe Storm Risk Tuesday: Gulf Coast
Energy: Slider Shows Upper Level Winds Tracking East
The storm line will mostly be heavy rain and wind driven, but a small chance of individual cells reaching severe limits.
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Close Up: Between Midnight And Noon Thursday
Temperature Outlook: Change On The Way
The easterly winds Tuesday will bring in more clouds and cool the trend, but the warm winds will push through Wednesday and Thursday. The big chance will arrive by the weekend.
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