What comes up, must come down! You know that expression? Well, the latest storm that brought the central US everything from tornadoes to blizzard conditions is moving ‘up’ to our north in to Canada. The rain we had Thursday morning was on the warm side of that system. But in classic fall and winter fashion, the cold air pooling behind the storm will come crashing ‘down’ south as it passes by Friday. Storms are nature’s way of balancing extreme opposing air masses. So the mild temps are about to be replaced with colder air into the weekend. The thermometer will be going up and down as well. A chance for snow is a good bet in the mountains, even western Maryland. But locally, just a chance. My mention of the ‘white stuff’ is not meant to cause alarm or concern, but rather give hope to keep looking up or out the window for just a few first flakes of the season. Faith-in-the-Flakes*
Bringing back my winter seasonal favorite Canadian GEM Model here, it shows the Friday evening flare up of a Lake Effect event. The warmer water is making the model show more rain, but this will be cold enough for a solid snow event. Snow showers will make it to Garrett County, MD. So if you have traveling plans there, dress for winter and consider travel might be impacted. Looks like snow for the other big resorts of Seven Springs, and of course Snowshoe, WV at 4848′ elevation. But how does this related to our region in central Maryland and southern PA?
This is where the kid in me works for fellow snow lovers looking for support of some of those showers our way. It will NOT be a major event, but if I didn’t mention it and you see some flakes, then it looks like it was missed. Also, some will want to look out just so they don’t miss their chance at the season’s first flakes.
Upper Level Support:
This time of year I like to look at upper level maps such at the vorticity or spin at jet stream level (500 mb). More energy or spin creates lift below and can support showers that normally dry up while crossing over the mountains. The models don’t show any precipitation, but they are looking for enough that could be measured. I am showing support for flurries or snow showers that likely will not lay and stay. Just having flakes falling down can be enough for many to be excited about.
Time Frame: Friday evening through Saturday evening. If this does verify, it is more likely in the colder places west and north of I-95.
Check out how the energy swings past the Great Lakes, peaks Friday evening, but more impulses through Saturday. If anything, this will make for more clouds, keeping our temps in the 40s to start the weekend. The air will be unstable, so afternoon showers developing with low freezing levels could even produce some sleet pellets. Once it passes by Sunday, winds will ease and shift, improving the weather for the Ravens game in Baltimore. Still, morning tail-gating will be chilly.