The remains of former super Hurricane Patricia are now heading north. The actually core of Low Pressure and most extreme weather will be well to our west, but the inflow of easterly winds off of the Atlantic and Chesapeake will feed into the mid level energy. The net result will be the developing rain on Tuesday and energy to produce strong thunderstorms on  Wednesday. Then consider my unscientific research that has pointed out numerous over achieving events when there is a full moon.  Below are two model simulations showing the progression of rain. There is split as to what time this will arrive, but an agreement that central Maryland and inland can expect greater than 1 inch of rain, with the GFS now pushing Baltimore over 2 inches by the end of the storm Thursday morning.

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The NAM model is most aggressive with the leading edge near Washington around noon, and spreading north all afternoon. Steady rain on this model continues overnight, then breaks up with showers and strong storms Wednesday afternoon and evening.  The GFS model has shifted it’s focus of rain farther east with each run, a bias I suggested last week that has been prevalent for months.  This model brings the rain in Tuesday night, but steady, heavy rain much of Wednesday.  See the comparison below.

NAM Model Simulation

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GFS Model Simulation


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