Screen Shot2015-09-29 06_16_10Today will be the first of two rain events this week. This morning starts with fog and drizzle for many, but the rain itself will build in by lunchtime and build this afternoon as shown in the radar simulation below. So that commute home will be wet. My son’s fun run at school is trying to get squeezed in, but it will be a tight call. Afternoon soccer for my other son looks like a rainout. So plan for your activities accordingly. Tonight, that is when the heavy stuff arrives.

Flooding on the western shore of the Chesapeake Bay will continue with the east wind pushing onshore especially at high tide.

Temperatures will make he upper 70s today, but then cool off. By Thursday and Friday we may struggle to reach 60F as cold air flows in from the north while Tropical Storm Joaquin (names last night) moves up the east coast to our east. I’ll have an update on that storm this morning.

This model simulation shows the rain developing all day. As I mentioned in last night’s report, a wave of Low Pressure will form on the front, enhancing the rain. That is a pattern we had seen over the summer, and it looks like the atmospheric memory is like an elephant, hanging on to that thought.  The totals are widespread though. I’ve posted the range of expected rain (only through tomorrow) below.

Radar Simulation Slider –>

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How Much Rain? A wide spread shown here for central Maryland. But there is agreement of heavy rain in the mountains, and less rain for Delmarva.  The one caveat will be potential thunderstorms around the Bay between 7 PM and midnight.

The GFS Model is more aggressive. This did overdo the rain this past weekend as well.

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The NAM Model is on the low end

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