It will rain this week! That is a guarantee, but there are two separate events. The first starts Tuesday. The second relates to the Atlantic Ocean where The National Hurricane Center has identified Tropical Depression 11 well off the southeast coast. This is poised to ride up the coast as Tropical Storm Joaquin. That will be a fun one for newscasters and meteorologists on TV to pronounce.  But it will be difficult to deal with as it will likely be tightly wrapped on the coast. So many factors have to come together across the ocean for Tropical Depression 11,  that is it nearly impossible to pull off a full impact event, let alone call it perfectly this early. So a lot like the movie (Oceans 11), but not a pretty as George Clooney. Sorry ladies.

I must remind you that just this past weekend we had expected a coastal storm to develop, and it did. But north of Ocean City it remained dry instead of the Sunday soaker. So be weary of modeling many days out.  However, this should turn tropical, and that itself will bring major beach erosion, and perhaps serious flooding in New York if the current track holds. But I want to tackle these two events separately.

Event 1: Mid Week Rain

This is a cold front with the tropical air that we felt arrive today.  This slider of the GFS model does something similar to that we’ve seen over the past few months. A new Low Pressure tries to form overhead along the front. That will enhance the rain Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.


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Event 2: Tropical Depression 11 forecast to become Tropical Storm 

I want to start with the wind modeling, rather than track the rain at this point. Since history shows long range modeling is better as guidance than being precise, I’d prefer to focus on the trend tracking the circulation. The rain modeling is father below. Notice the push northwest of our tropical feature. Then it speeds up off the coast and eventually into New York, up the Hudson River Valley.  That is a similar track that Irene took. Any tropical system moving this way could inundate Manhattan with water. So this is worth watching slowly.

Wind Circulation Forecast


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As far as the Mid Atlantic is concerned, this is where it gets tricky. I am showing only the GFS Model. If you read other weather blogs, you might have heard the European Model slams this storm into the coast like the Isabel track. Note, this is not nearly the same intensity storm, but a big difference that could impact the Chesapeake Bay and bring central Maryland more rain.  I don’t buy that so I am not showing it.

Rainfall And Storm Track Outlook?

At this point, the rain with the second event would arrive ahead of it, along the old frontal boundary. But as the storm makes its pass east of Ocean City and Delaware, dry air should pull into central Maryland and lock most of the rain, with the huh waves along the coast and out to sea. It is the track towards New York City that is worrisome.

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Tropical Modeling Tracks

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National Hurricane Center Track


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